Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 1
1,447,160 shs 484.95. Jim forgot about this odd lot in a smaller account?
No. of Recommendations: 14
1,447,160 shs 484.95. Jim forgot about this odd lot in a smaller account?
I don't know the origin of the transaction you're talking about, but I assume it's a change in some portfolio somewhere? maybe a sub's retirement fund? Not related to the stock repurchase program, anyway, since those are explicitly documented.
Looking only at B shares:
There haven't been any B shares bought under the repurchase program since November 2023 at $347.16. The highest absolute price paid to date (average in a month) for a B share under the repurchase program has been $357.22 in Sept 2023. Highest price-to-known-book-at-start-of-month price paid for a month's block of B shares has been 1.480 in Feb 2022.
To repeat, all of those are figures for B shares only. Management has a clear preference for repurchases of A shares over B, and some (I believe most) of the most recent months of A purchases at higher valuations were from long time shareholders for non-economic reasons, so for both reasons one should not try to convert any A share purchase price by 1500 to get an idea of what management thinks a B share is worth.
Unless/until P/B starts to mean something meaningfully different as a quick yardstick for value, I see no reason to think that management would purchase a B share at over 1.48 times book (known and published peak-to-date book per share at the beginning of the month in question) in order to add to the value of remaining shares, for the simple reason that they haven't done so.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
I think HC was referring to a big trade by persons unknown, but continuing Jim's thread:
Unless/until P/B starts to mean something meaningfully different as a quick yardstick for value, I see no reason to think that management would purchase a B share at over 1.48 times book (known and published peak-to-date book per share at the beginning of the month in question) in order to add to the value of remaining shares, for the simple reason that they haven't done so.
Which is 1.48 x $303.37 = $449
About 7% down from here.
About 17% down from peak share price.
I'd be surprised if they did repurchase anytime soon, though.
They are in 'batten down the hatches' mode, expecting rough weather.
No. of Recommendations: 3
I'd be surprised if they did repurchase anytime soon, though.
They are in 'batten down the hatches' mode, expecting rough weather.
I'd see it as a more aggressive than defensive posture.
A spider fixing up and extending the web, ready for new prey...figuring something tasty is likely to come along soon enough.
Not just a philosophical difference. I don't think Berkshire's management is the sort to act on a hunch about turbulence coming any more than they're the types to try to predict the stock market. They're just reacting to different prices (high) and opportunity sets (low), with no more expectation of the future beyond "prices fluctuate" and a rule of thumb that there's a good opportunity from time to time for those who are prepared.
If I were hanging out at head office, I could imagine hearing conversations around the water cooler of the form "Do you think it would be good to own XXX at the right price? What price would that be?" or just possibly "Have you ever thought about getting into [off piste asset] YYY?"
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
"I think HC was referring to a big trade by persons unknown, but continuing Jim's thread:"
Correct, I never said or meant to imply I thought brk was the buyer. I just used the opportunity to tease Jim a little. I bought back the remaining calls I was short that
expire today, all in the money. I lost 2-3 $$ per call, I sold them to soon. All my brkb is now owned free and clear. Hopefully up 15 to 500 is a favorite over down 15 to 470?
No. of Recommendations: 1
with brk at 485, the jan 16-26 options are
the 470 put is 17.55 bid
the 500 call is 27.25 bid.
So, up to 500 plus is a big favorite over down to 470 plus, by jan 26, just sayin.
Hopefully, the selling here by our foreign friends has been caused by irrational fear, TO DA MOON ALICE!!
No. of Recommendations: 2
“ I'd see it as a more aggressive than defensive posture.
A spider fixing up and extending the web, ready for new prey...figuring something tasty is likely to come along soon enough.
Not just a philosophical difference. I don't think Berkshire's management is the sort to act on a hunch about turbulence coming any more than they're the types to try to predict the stock market. They're just reacting to different prices (high) and opportunity sets (low), with no more expectation of the future beyond "prices fluctuate" and a rule of thumb that there's a good opportunity from time to time for those who are prepared.”
Sure, though…
In recent history they did not pounce when things were looking bad.
I bought Berkshire at book value. Berkshire didn’t.
We all want “things are looking up” and “not expensive”.
Something about “cheery consensus” comes to mind.
And deploying $150-$200bn in a sensible way? Dang! Is it even possible?
We had a nice run up. Might be time to cash in a few more.
No. of Recommendations: 11
In recent history they did not pounce when things were looking bad.
I bought Berkshire at book value. Berkshire didn’t.
You mean first part of 2020 during the pandemic dip? That's the last time Berkshire traded at book.
Berkshire did repurchase shares at known book in May 2020.
They were thinking something else in April that year--possibly a deal being thought about?--but bought heavily every other month of the year.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
Was the old 1.2x book metric that WEB used as a buy back signal based on current or peak price to book?
No. of Recommendations: 3
Most recently reported book value.
No. of Recommendations: 0
<<In recent history they did not pounce when things were looking bad.
I bought Berkshire at book value. Berkshire didn’t.>>
You mean first part of 2020 during the pandemic dip? That's the last time Berkshire traded at book.
Berkshire did repurchase shares at known book in May 2020.
Thanks, Jim. I had forgotten they did buy at known book in May, and almost book in June, 2020. $5Bn worth.
They bought about $25Bn in 2020, and $27Bn in 2021. Total of $76Bn from 2019 to now.
And I suppose that's where they could, and probably will, get rid of substantial amounts of cash in the future.
