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I ran some tests that I thought the group may find interesting. My software has the ability to paratest multiple parameters similar to GTR1. I tested the Dying Bullish Euphoria using two indexes as the basis of the signals, and fourteen indexes for the returns off of these two indexes. The two indexes for producing the signals was NDX100 and the S&P 500.

Here are the indexes

Symbol  Index
^XCI    Amex Computer
^NDX    Nasdaq 100 Index
^PSE    Tech: Pse Tech
^IXIC   Nasdaq Composite
^IXID   Nas - Nms Industrial
^XII    Institutional Ndx
^OEX    S&P 100
^RUI    Russell 1000
^RUA    Russell 3000
^GSPC   S&P 500
^XAX    Amex Composite
^IXFN   Nas - Nms Financial
^MID    S&P Mid Caps
^DJI    Dow Jones Industrial Average

Period Tested

1/1/1990 to 2/14/2026

Indexes for Producing Signals

1. Nasdaq 100 (NDX100)
2. S&P 500 (^GSPC)

Lookback Days Tested

90 to 120

Average of All Indexes for Each Lookback Period

               CAGR    CAGR    DD       DD
Lookback Days  NDX100  SP500   NDX100   SP500
90             8.95%   11.04%  -57.69%  -61.06%
91             9.02%   11.03%  -57.13%  -58.96%
92             8.37%   11.27%  -62.50%  -58.73%
93             8.63%   11.96%  -59.63%  -48.13%
94             9.21%   11.31%  -55.80%  -45.31%
95             9.05%   11.50%  -57.02%  -46.20%
96             9.28%   11.82%  -55.87%  -49.09%
97             9.25%   11.32%  -58.45%  -46.95%
98             9.34%   11.52%  -58.00%  -46.04%
99             8.77%   11.48%  -61.92%  -45.96%
100            8.51%   11.54%  -66.18%  -47.18%
101            9.80%   11.58%  -59.30%  -44.97%
102            9.51%   11.66%  -58.91%  -44.93%
103            9.98%   11.71%  -56.12%  -45.86%
104            9.95%   11.27%  -56.77%  -45.64%
105            9.95%   11.53%  -57.04%  -44.07%
106            12.20%  11.46%  -39.12%  -45.70%
107            12.20%  12.06%  -38.63%  -49.28%
108            12.34%  11.73%  -38.70%  -45.46%
109            12.94%  11.36%  -38.58%  -48.71%
110            12.99%  11.56%  -38.56%  -51.71%
111            13.20%  11.59%  -38.82%  -42.00%
112            13.37%  11.81%  -38.98%  -41.40%
113            13.33%  11.72%  -38.84%  -44.31%
114            13.28%  11.59%  -38.24%  -43.41%
115            12.84%  11.89%  -38.91%  -40.63%
116            13.02%  11.79%  -38.71%  -41.78%
117            13.14%  11.77%  -39.20%  -40.50%
118            12.86%  12.05%  -39.54%  -38.72%
119            12.82%  11.97%  -38.62%  -39.18%
120            12.84%  11.70%  -38.75%  -41.35%

https://www.zeelotes.org/DBE_90-120.PNG

This should explain why I use a longer lookback. Using the NDX100 to produce the signals significantly improves on the returns no matter which index you use for actual investing.

Max - Min - Average Compared to LTBH

LTBH                                                                     NDX100  NDX100  NDX100   NDX100   SP500   SP500   SP500    SP500
Test  Results  ROI        CAGR    GSD    Sharpe  DDD3    BBW   Drawdown  Max     Min     Average  DD Avg   Max     Min     Average  DD Avg
LTBH  ^XCI     15591.35%  14.95%  30.09  0.54    10.67%  1.5   -77.19%   18.84%  12.41%  15.85%   -52.16%  16.21%  11.78%  14.59%   -54.63%
LTBH  ^NDX     11247.90%  13.93%  30.18  0.51    11.97%  1.26  -82.90%   18.30%  11.68%  15.23%   -51.28%  16.83%  11.24%  14.61%   -55.71%
LTBH  ^PSE     14922.11%  14.82%  26.67  0.56    9.39%   1.69  -70.74%   17.05%  10.41%  13.98%   -48.72%  15.63%  11.35%  14.16%   -43.89%
LTBH  ^IXIC    5046.76%   11.47%  25.98  0.45    11.17%  1.1   -77.93%   15.62%  9.86%   12.94%   -51.16%  14.44%  9.68%   12.32%   -54.99%
LTBH  ^IXID    2703.63%   9.62%   25.03  0.38    10.73%  0.96  -69.36%   13.02%  7.24%   10.32%   -53.44%  12.04%  7.03%   9.92%    -56.20%
LTBH  ^XII     1875.87%   8.57%   20.23  0.37    8.42%   1.09  -64.23%   12.38%  7.92%   10.36%   -41.56%  11.35%  7.92%   9.88%    -32.90%
LTBH  ^OEX     1932.79%   8.66%   20.04  0.37    8.12%   1.14  -61.31%   12.28%  8.24%   10.44%   -41.02%  11.15%  7.85%   9.88%    -32.84%
LTBH  ^RUI     1920.93%   8.64%   19.85  0.37    8.03%   1.15  -56.88%   11.83%  7.39%   9.72%    -44.69%  10.71%  7.40%   9.39%    -35.06%
LTBH  ^RUA     1879.38%   8.58%   19.96  0.38    8.01%   1.15  -57.07%   11.70%  7.23%   9.52%    -45.01%  10.54%  7.33%   9.25%    -35.42%
LTBH  ^GSPC    1837.05%   8.51%   19.78  0.37    7.91%   1.15  -56.78%   11.71%  7.47%   9.70%    -43.70%  10.58%  7.38%   9.36%    -34.28%
LTBH  ^XAX     2228.07%   9.06%   19.13  0.37    7.74%   1.25  -54.41%   12.11%  6.43%   9.09%    -60.76%  9.44%   7.16%   8.76%    -59.07%
LTBH  ^IXFN    2460.28%   9.35%   27.32  0.37    10.18%  0.99  -64.73%   11.52%  6.85%   9.29%    -58.99%  10.86%  7.71%   9.31%    -52.91%
LTBH  ^MID     3169.43%   10.09%  22.01  0.42    7.29%   1.47  -56.32%   11.35%  6.11%   8.65%    -51.92%  9.90%   6.80%   8.71%    -42.72%
LTBH  ^DJI     1627.14%   8.17%   18.89  0.35    6.72%   1.29  -53.78%   10.93%  6.65%   8.90%    -42.28%  9.54%   6.83%   8.64%    -37.09%

https://www.zeelotes.org/DBE_LTBH.PNG

The Top Twenty CAGR Returns for the NDX100 Signals

Test           Results  ROI        CAGR    GSD    Sharpe  DDD3   BBW   Signal  Drawdown  Bullish Lookback Days  Bearish Lookback Days
Para-Test #2   ^XCI     52327.66%  18.84%  25.87  0.75    5.24%  3.72  88%     -38.93%   112                    112
Para-Test #3   ^XCI     49642.29%  18.67%  26     0.73    5.45%  3.56  88%     -39.52%   113                    113
Para-Test #4   ^XCI     49198.72%  18.64%  25.98  0.73    5.36%  3.61  88%     -36.38%   114                    114
Para-Test #1   ^XCI     48430.80%  18.59%  25.92  0.74    5.19%  3.7   88%     -38.22%   111                    111
Para-Test #21  ^XCI     45916.21%  18.41%  25.91  0.73    5.37%  3.56  88%     -36.37%   110                    110
Para-Test #7   ^XCI     45341.72%  18.37%  25.75  0.73    5.55%  3.44  88%     -34.92%   117                    117
Para-Test #6   ^XCI     45015.87%  18.35%  25.64  0.73    5.64%  3.39  88%     -34.44%   116                    116
Para-Test #2   ^NDX     44376.07%  18.30%  25.33  0.73    4.78%  3.94  82%     -35.74%   112                    112
Para-Test #20  ^XCI     43511.16%  18.24%  25.97  0.73    5.40%  3.5   88%     -37.72%   109                    109
Para-Test #1   ^NDX     42155.17%  18.14%  25.37  0.73    4.72%  3.94  88%     -35.74%   111                    111
Para-Test #3   ^NDX     41599.30%  18.09%  25.46  0.72    5.13%  3.65  82%     -37.60%   113                    113
Para-Test #4   ^NDX     41173.82%  18.06%  25.48  0.71    4.80%  3.86  82%     -36.36%   114                    114
Para-Test #19  ^XCI     40144.22%  17.98%  25.92  0.73    5.57%  3.35  88%     -38.41%   108                    108
Para-Test #21  ^NDX     40031.34%  17.97%  25.38  0.72    4.78%  3.87  82%     -35.74%   110                    110
Para-Test #8   ^XCI     39138.54%  17.89%  25.84  0.71    5.96%  3.14  88%     -35.62%   118                    118
Para-Test #5   ^XCI     38921.14%  17.88%  26.02  0.7     6.06%  3.09  88%     -38.77%   115                    115
Para-Test #9   ^XCI     38286.82%  17.82%  25.75  0.71    5.75%  3.23  88%     -35.11%   119                    119
Para-Test #17  ^XCI     37911.06%  17.79%  26     0.72    5.77%  3.21  88%     -38.36%   106                    106
Para-Test #20  ^NDX     36942.06%  17.71%  25.46  0.71    4.97%  3.67  82%     -35.74%   109                    109
Para-Test #18  ^XCI     36357.40%  17.66%  26     0.71    5.67%  3.24  88%     -36.45%   107                    107

The Top Twenty CAGR Returns for the SP500 Signals

Test           Results  ROI        CAGR    GSD    Sharpe  DDD3   BBW   Signal  Drawdown  Bullish Lookback Days  Bearish Lookback Days
Para-Test #8   ^NDX     28128.88%  16.83%  25.31  0.67    6.18%  2.86  86%     -38.43%   118                    118
Para-Test #9   ^NDX     27252.61%  16.73%  25.28  0.66    6.25%  2.81  86%     -39.59%   119                    119
Para-Test #7   ^NDX     25682.85%  16.54%  25.35  0.66    6.67%  2.62  86%     -43.27%   117                    117
Para-Test #2   ^NDX     23742.35%  16.29%  25.25  0.65    6.81%  2.53  86%     -44.51%   112                    112
Para-Test #6   ^NDX     23756.56%  16.29%  25.42  0.65    7.00%  2.47  86%     -45.29%   116                    116
Para-Test #8   ^XCI     23147.88%  16.21%  25.88  0.64    7.05%  2.43  86%     -43.36%   118                    118
Para-Test #5   ^NDX     22960.69%  16.18%  25.37  0.64    6.96%  2.46  86%     -45.06%   115                    115
Para-Test #9   ^XCI     22693.76%  16.14%  25.89  0.64    7.04%  2.42  86%     -44.25%   119                    119
Para-Test #10  ^NDX     22034.62%  16.05%  25.34  0.64    6.73%  2.52  86%     -43.98%   120                    120
Para-Test #7   ^XCI     20390.04%  15.80%  25.92  0.63    7.53%  2.23  93%     -48.40%   117                    117
Para-Test #14  ^XCI     19719.92%  15.70%  26.93  0.61    6.21%  2.64  82%     -56.05%   103                    103
Para-Test #6   ^XCI     19537.97%  15.67%  25.99  0.62    7.82%  2.13  93%     -50.27%   116                    116
Para-Test #5   ^XCI     19372.93%  15.64%  25.95  0.62    7.62%  2.18  93%     -49.62%   115                    115
Para-Test #2   ^PSE     19295.91%  15.63%  23.47  0.64    6.40%  2.58  93%     -35.80%   112                    112
Para-Test #13  ^XCI     19093.26%  15.59%  27.01  0.61    6.32%  2.59  82%     -56.64%   102                    102
Para-Test #1   ^NDX     18840.95%  15.55%  25.37  0.62    7.57%  2.19  86%     -47.85%   111                    111
Para-Test #2   ^XCI     18636.30%  15.52%  25.82  0.62    7.26%  2.27  93%     -48.92%   112                    112
Para-Test #12  ^XCI     18428.98%  15.48%  26.99  0.6     6.32%  2.57  82%     -56.88%   101                    101
Para-Test #3   ^NDX     18423.77%  15.48%  25.42  0.62    7.66%  2.15  86%     -50.04%   113                    113
Para-Test #10  ^XCI     17939.57%  15.40%  25.98  0.61    7.61%  2.15  86%     -48.79%   120                    120

The average of the top twenty for NDX100 is 18.17%, and for the S&P 500 it is 15.94%. Averaging the ROI instead is 42,514% for the NDX100 and 21,453% for the S&P 500.... almost exactly half!

Using the NDX100 to produce the signals here is what that looks like in the last two major bear markets.

2000-2002 Bear Market

A 71.76% gain holding NDX100 short.

https://www.zeelotes.org/DBE_2000-2002.PNG

2007-2009 Bear Market

A 25.91% gain holding NDX100 short.

https://www.zeelotes.org/DBE_2007-2009.PNG

Even this can be improved upon by a simple little modification - set different lookbacks for the bull side than you set for the bear side.

See

For the results shown, are they based solely on DBE, or are they a combination of timkng factors and only adjusting the DBE lack?

Thanks for posting your work.

Aussi

Zee, thank you for presenting this work! I want to verify I understand what the look back period means. Say I am using a 100 day look back on the NDX100. So in the previous 100 trading days, I am looking to see whether the index has hit an x-day high, correct? If so, what would the value of x be? Also 100? 252? Or something else?

Aussi asked: For the results shown, are they based solely on DBE

Yes, the testing was done for the Dying Bullish Euphoria exclusively.

Ismr asked: Zee, thank you for presenting this work! I want to verify I understand what the look back period means. Say I am using a 100 day look back on the NDX100. So in the previous 100 trading days, I am looking to see whether the index has hit an x-day high, correct? If so, what would the value of x be? Also 100? 252? Or something else?

It is exactly as Jim originally described it here:

https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=27035352

Hi Jim, I had a question about how to interpret and apply Zee's various look-back lengths, and he directed me to your seminal 2008 post, saying it was "exactly as you described it".

I read through your entire 2008 post, and I'm wondering if you could help me understand, as it's still not quite clear to me how Zee is approaching this.

When you referred to a look-back of say 120 days, does that mean you looked back 120 days to determine whether a 99-day high had been made in that 120 day period? Or, does it mean you looked to see whether a 120-day high had been made in the previous 99 days? (or possibly a 120-day high in the previous 120 days?)

I'm just not certain what the convention is so wanted to see if I could understand a little better.

(In another post, Elan wrote that the DBE signal is triggered 99 days after the most recent *252* day high. This seems to be another application, which I don't *think* matches what Zee is doing, but I'm honestly not sure.)

When you referred to a look-back of say 120 days, does that mean you looked back 120 days to determine whether a 99-day high had been made in that 120 day period? Or, does it mean you looked to see whether a 120-day high had been made in the previous 99 days? (or possibly a 120-day high in the previous 120 days?)

I'm not Jim obviously ..... but

Clearly you could tune both parameters separately but in Jim's post that Zee pointed to at:
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=27035352

I read it that Jim was suggesting to keep both parameters the same for simplicity so if picking 99 days you looked for a 99 day high in the last 99 days or if 120 days, you looked for a 120 day high in the last 120 days, etc.

My understanding is that days = market days and not calendar days in all cases.

StevnFool

PS. It looks like ^IXIC, ^NDX & ^GSPC all made new highs today so whichever version of DBE you choose, it looks like it is a Bull signal for at least the next 99 days (or 110 or 120).

Correct, marking -yet another- V pattern lasting less than 3 months - although Nasdaq did go bearish a couple of weeks ago, with well over 100 days without a new high.

I read it that Jim was suggesting to keep both parameters the same for simplicity so if picking 99 days you looked for a 99 day high in the last 99 days or if 120 days, you looked for a 120 day high in the last 120 days, etc.

My understanding is that days = market days and not calendar days in all cases.

Thank you StevnFool for your reply! That helps clarify for me.

I'm going to assume that Zee's approach is the above, unless he or Jim corrects me. :-)

Ismr409 stated: I'm going to assume that Zee's approach is the above, unless he or Jim corrects me. :-)

I advise you to go to my blog and download the file so that you can see the formulas and exactly how they work. It is listed under Downloads and Timing Indicators.

I've just updated the file so that it contains data up to yesterday. I shared the file in March of 2010. It has been available to MI users for over fifteen years.

https://www.zeelotes.org/blog/downloads/?did=64

Hi Zeelotes, how can your blig be reached? It requires log in credentials. Thanks

Pongo asked: Hi Zeelotes, how can your blig be reached? It requires log in credentials. Thanks

The link is in my post above. Once you click on it you are given the opportunity to register. Once you register it may take me a bit of time to approve it.

Already 19 people from this forum have downloaded the research.

Zee, thanks so much for the reminder about your blog. Much appreciated!

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