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Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week! | How To Invest |
* 5/18 5/25 6/1 6/8/26
S&P 500 Index 7408.50 7473.47 7580.06 7383.74
Trailing 12 month PE 32.30 32.06 32.58 32.69
Trail Earnings yield 3.10% 3.12% 3.07% 3.06%
Forward 12 month PE 22.38 22.52 22.80 22.21
Fwd Earnings Yield 4.47% 4.44% 4.39% 4.50%
90 day tbill yield 3.69 3.68 3.69 3.78
10 year tbond yield 4.59% 4.56% 4.45% 4.55%
Arezi Ratio 1.19 1.18 1.20 1.24
Fed Ratio 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.01
The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.
The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.
The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 58%
stocks, 42% cash this week.
Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish
A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 38%.
An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 73%.
Elan