No. of Recommendations: 5
Well, at 3:20 today, UPST is up about 28%. Which is fairly odd, because at first glance the financial numbers they reported are frikking terrible.
Here's the earnings PR:
https://ir.upstart.com/static-files/e50d8cc6-9424-...Here's the earnings presentation:
https://ir.upstart.com/static-files/f5c4ba15-883b-...Here's a transcript of the earnings call:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578373-upstart-h...From the PR:
Fourth Quarter 'highlights':
"
Total revenue was $147 million, a decrease of 52% from the fourth quarter of 2021.
...
GAAP net income (loss) was ($55.3) million, down from $58.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Adjusted net income (loss) was ($20.9) million, down from $87.0 million in the same quarter of the prior year.
"
Brutal, and getting worse for the present quarter:
"
For the first quarter of 2023, Upstart expects:
Revenue of approximately $100 million
...
Net Income (Loss) of approximately ($145) million
"
Looking at the presentation and reading the transcript of the earnings call, the company officers acknowledge the brutal reality of how bad things are at present, but present an optimistic take on the future, saying:
- signs are pointing to the worst being behind them,
- they've trimmed the company to better fit current conditions with the layoffs announced a couple weeks ago, which leaves them well prepared to profit when the macro environment turns around,
- they are in 'advanced' talks with potential partners for a more stable long term commitment of loan funding sources,
- they've continued to expand the number of partners using their technology, banks, credit unions and auto dealers,
- their technology has continued to rapidly improved, both in terms of accurate assessment of risk and automation of loan approval.
They said that after the costs of the layoffs are absorbed they should be roughly breaking even in today's macro environment, and they have a robust balance sheet.
So, I guess there were enough positives presented that shorts are covering and some people are making some bets/investments.
I don't see anything that changes my investment/speculation thesis for the long term, though the scale of the contraction and losses is quite large. They still seem to have a bright future when the macro turns around and an immense potential market to serve.
