*                         3/17     3/24     3/31     4/7/25
S&P 500 Index             5638.94  5667.56  5580.94  5074.08
Trailing 12 month PE      25.98    26.11    25.63    23.24
Trail Earnings yield      3.85%    3.83%    3.90%    4.30%
Forward 12 month PE       21.87    21.93    21.55    19.54
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.57%    4.56%    4.64%    5.12%
90 day tbill yield        4.33     4.33     4.33     4.28
10 year tbond yield       4.31%    4.25%    4.27%    4.01%
Arezi Ratio               1.12     1.13     1.11     0.99
Fed Ratio                 0.94     0.93     0.92     0.78

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 70%
stocks, 30% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 40%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 80%.

Elan

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