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*                         9/2      9/9      9/16     9/23/24
S&P 500 Index             5648.40  5408.42  5626.02  5702.55
Trailing 12 month PE      27.74    26.78    27.80    28.25
Trail Earnings yield      3.60%    3.73%    3.60%    3.54%
Forward 12 month PE       23.76    22.64    23.49    23.80
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.21%    4.42%    4.26%    4.20%
90 day tbill yield        5.21     5.13     4.97     4.75
10 year tbond yield       3.91%    3.72%    3.66%    3.73%
Arezi Ratio               1.45     1.37     1.38     1.34
Fed Ratio                 0.93     0.84     0.86     0.89

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 53%
stocks, 47% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 23%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 70%.

Elan

Many thanks for your ongoing generous contribution to this esteemed discussion group.

* 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23/24
S&P 500 Index 5648.40 5408.42 5626.02 5702.55


I'm wondering whether another column showing long term averages might be informative. I'd certainly regard it as such. A bit of work for you, of course, perhaps rewarded with much appreciated from us. I imagine you have the necessary source data readily at hand.

Tom

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