No. of Recommendations: 8
Consider median earnings yield for QQQE. Links:
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"I track the trend earnings of QQQE.
So, my fair value estimation process goes like this:
Calculate the earnings yield each day through time. ..."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=35139523=====================
"1-What is the metric you use for QQQE? (price ratio?)
...
So, the earnings yield is the best place to start.
Since it`s 100 companies equally weighted, the median earnings yield is a good approximation of what is going on.
It is much more numerically stable than the average or sum, because it isn`t affected by wild outliers. ..."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=35128797====================
"Speaking of returns from an index...
FWIW, I note that the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight index is quite a bit cheaper than usual these days using trailing earnings yields as a yardstick.
The median firm is 16% cheaper than average since 1997, the average firm 26% cheaper than usual.
On a median day since 1997, the median earnings yield was 3.91% (P/E 25.6), or 4.24% (P/E 23.6) starting 2003 after the tech bubble was bust.
Right now it`s 5.22% (P/E 19.1).
On that metric, it has been cheaper only 15% of the time since 1997 or 20% of the time since 2003.
Looked at on a relative basis, it also looks good.
The earnings growth rate has been reliably much higher in the Nas100 than among the S&P 500 since the tech crunch, so they should rationally trade at a solid premium.
Again, based on median trailing earnings yield:
Usually the Nas 100 firms are ~30% more expensive than the S&P 500 ones on trailing earnings yield, but right now it`s a premium of only 10%.
If somebody held a guy to my head and said I had to be long an index fund, it would probably be QQQE at $41.52."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=34101125 