Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) |
Author: lizgdal ✶☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: Valuing QQQE
Date: 08/25/25 1:54 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 8
Consider median earnings yield for QQQE. Links:

===================
"I track the trend earnings of QQQE.
So, my fair value estimation process goes like this:
Calculate the earnings yield each day through time. ..."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=35139523

=====================
"1-What is the metric you use for QQQE? (price ratio?)
...
So, the earnings yield is the best place to start.

Since it`s 100 companies equally weighted, the median earnings yield is a good approximation of what is going on.
It is much more numerically stable than the average or sum, because it isn`t affected by wild outliers. ..."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=35128797

====================
"Speaking of returns from an index...

FWIW, I note that the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight index is quite a bit cheaper than usual these days using trailing earnings yields as a yardstick.
The median firm is 16% cheaper than average since 1997, the average firm 26% cheaper than usual.
On a median day since 1997, the median earnings yield was 3.91% (P/E 25.6), or 4.24% (P/E 23.6) starting 2003 after the tech bubble was bust.
Right now it`s 5.22% (P/E 19.1).
On that metric, it has been cheaper only 15% of the time since 1997 or 20% of the time since 2003.

Looked at on a relative basis, it also looks good.
The earnings growth rate has been reliably much higher in the Nas100 than among the S&P 500 since the tech crunch, so they should rationally trade at a solid premium.
Again, based on median trailing earnings yield:
Usually the Nas 100 firms are ~30% more expensive than the S&P 500 ones on trailing earnings yield, but right now it`s a premium of only 10%.

If somebody held a guy to my head and said I had to be long an index fund, it would probably be QQQE at $41.52."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=34101125
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to lizgdal here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community