No. of Recommendations: 7
Quite good relative value on this falling knife I think.
Lowest price in the last 8 years or so was March 2020, around $27-30, depending on whether you take the intra-week or intra-day low.
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Add in roughly 20% inflation.
Subtract out 10% for devaluing patents (warning: total estimate).
Add in $12.33 earnings since then.
Subtract out $5.60 dividends since then.
Result: $36-39, depending on which 'low' you prefer to use.
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Today's price: $34.30.
IMHO: cheaper than the lowest lows of the last 8 years, but with a stronger position in terms of pipeline and finances.
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What might reverse the recent bad sentiment?
- historically, you get totally random 20-30% rallies in PFE every now and then - look at the 5 year chart
- lots of covid + new major clade BA.2.86 -> covid revenue higher than expected, for longer than expected?
-- (BA.2.86 news triggered 30% rallies in $MRNA and $BNTX recently from $95->$125)
- new GLP-3 med en route, stage 3 (has taken LLY/NVO share prices to the moon this year +50%)
-- (Pfizer's GLP-3 med is oral rather than a jab, and works faster than the competitors)
- general shortages in medicines throughout global healthcare systems should boost prices up
- aging population, cancer meds, backlog in cancer treatment, etc
- equity fund managers fleeing tech in a tech crash and looking for a safe, low-beta, busted out safe haven stock?
Lastly : I think it passes the 'PER reliably below 10x in 5 years', since it's already <10x, and ±20-25% dividends can be reinvested to effectively bring it down further.
Probably worth a punt, I think?
I hold $PFE.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Now I agree with you that PFE is worth looking at.
I started following it a lot closer when it fell below $36.
I'm overweight in PFE so may not buy over $32/share but, it is interesting now.
No. of Recommendations: 3
dominance in mfg/ops relative to large peers has been forgotten.
its a working lever for most above listed catalysts\events.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Shares of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) hit a 52-week low on Wednesday after rival Moderna (MRNA) said its updated COVID-19 vaccine had been shown to generate a 'strong' immune response against the BA.2.86 variant in human studies.
Pfizer shares closed down 3% at $34.37. The shares hit a 52-week low of $34.26 earlier in the day and were down 33% year-to-date as of market close Wednesday.
According to Reuters, Pfizer said that their updated COVID-19 vaccine also elicits a strong response to the variant. The Pfizer data, however, was based on studies involving mice. Pfizer's partner on the vaccine is BioNTech (BNTX).
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4009707-pfizer-stock...
No. of Recommendations: 6
First post on this board!
Pfizer is one that's come up on my radar that I'm looking at and at 52 week lows.
High level
ROE 23
ROI 15
Manageable borrowings.
Looking at the last 3 years earnings estimate a solid base level of c$3.5 dollars per share.
10% growth for 10 years and a terminal multiple of 18 PE equates to 9.08 EPS x 18 = $163. Seeking a 12% return equates to a current present value of $52 per share. With a current share price of $34 that's a 34% discount.
Pretty solid buy IMO.
