Jim has provided great data revealing on average you could withdraw more than this based on BRK's consistent growth in valuation, and still keep your principal amount in Berkshire going forward. The 'lean years' where you could not withdraw 4% based on valuation were uncommon.

Yup.
I think it's a useful model.
The underlying idea is that, ultimately, the amount you can withdraw from a portfolio without ANY danger of it running out is the rate of increase in the value of the portfolio.
If you don't withdraw more than the real increase in value, perhaps with some smoothing, then the portfolio will last forever...or at least as long as the businesses in it are creating value.

FWIW, below is my latest table of share values. The valuations are adjusted for inflation, then smoothed.
Each value number is the simple average of my "two and a half column" valuation method, and book per share.
The final scale is pretty arbitrary...the thing to look at is the rate of increase, not the actual absolute number.

So, the percentage of your portfolio you can liquidate and spend each quarter is proportional to how much this number has gone up.
To the extent that the valuation methodology is valid and the smoothing isn't too extreme, by construction your portfolio will always have the same real value and it will last forever.

The two year rate of change is inflation + 8.2%/year. The last year is showing the slowdown, at only inflation + 5.1%.

I added a price column...that is the average real share price in the quarter that the financial statement in question was released.
So, the Q4 line is the value based on the Q4 statements, and the average price in the following Q1 when the Q4 statements came out.

For a SWR strategy based on this, I think it's OK to put a floor on the withdrawn amount. But that's a matter of taste.
(my personal favourite version pays out only 90% of the allowed amount each quarter to give slight long term growth, but also has a floor payment of 1% per quarter)

As an aside, the ratio of current price to smoothed real value has historically been an excellent predictor of expected returns in the subsequent 1-2 years.

Jim

          Smoothed   Average
Quarter     Value     Price
1999-Q3     81601    100682
1999-Q4     85191     87147
2000-Q1     87939     97525
2000-Q2     90443     98955
2000-Q3     92796    108186
2000-Q4     95140    116579
2001-Q1     96338    114044
2001-Q2     97167    114523
2001-Q3     97447    118942
2001-Q4     97662    122604
2002-Q1     98121    122520
2002-Q2     98644    117313
2002-Q3     99022    119230
2002-Q4     99410    109557
2003-Q1     99926    117528
2003-Q2    101388    120347
2003-Q3    102952    129746
2003-Q4    105442    146398
2004-Q1    108027    144736
2004-Q2    110314    137364
2004-Q3    112428    133368
2004-Q4    115187    138623
2005-Q1    117776    130957
2005-Q2    120196    127822
2005-Q3    122447    131697
2005-Q4    124657    133157
2006-Q1    127152    134860
2006-Q2    129419    137399
2006-Q3    132061    153789
2006-Q4    135623    160025
2007-Q1    138857    159320
2007-Q2    142145    162957
2007-Q3    145833    191461
2007-Q4    149048    191915
2008-Q1    151572    179826
2008-Q2    153160    163588
2008-Q3    154625    144302
2008-Q4    154859    119079
2009-Q1    154952    123832
2009-Q2    155411    133221
2009-Q3    157394    138368
2009-Q4    159816    157084
2010-Q1    163090    158341
2010-Q2    165228    163358
2010-Q3    168082    166229
2010-Q4    171700    170358
2011-Q1    175159    159736
2011-Q2    178226    142973
2011-Q3    180557    149664
2011-Q4    183431    156715
2012-Q1    187475    158142
2012-Q2    191133    166207
2012-Q3    195338    171068
2012-Q4    204296    192086
2013-Q1    209208    211738
2013-Q2    214093    221470
2013-Q3    219087    220985
2013-Q4    225486    224102
2014-Q1    231546    240914
2014-Q2    237670    250230
2014-Q3    243922    271341
2014-Q4    250170    278605
2015-Q1    256231    271900
2015-Q2    261954    257597
2015-Q3    267382    252154
2015-Q4    272887    249546
2016-Q1    277920    269427
2016-Q2    282371    272116
2016-Q3    286548    285506
2016-Q4    291448    309748
2017-Q1    296791    305312
2017-Q2    302257    322741
2017-Q3    307700    345699
2017-Q4    315588    372212
2018-Q1    322637    350220
2018-Q2    330239    364539
2018-Q3    339500    370573
2018-Q4    346215    358093
2019-Q1    354269    365709
2019-Q2    362420    359868
2019-Q3    371616    378185
2019-Q4    382735    369114
2020-Q1    390103    315921
2020-Q2    397738    356413
2020-Q3    405940    378937
2020-Q4    417448    417300
2021-Q1    429514    474941
2021-Q2    442016    466739
2021-Q3    453948    467897
2021-Q4    466641    519579
2022-Q1    478135    495027
2022-Q2    485276    435358
2022-Q3    491409    448092
2022-Q4    496685    461813
2023-Q1    502520    483424
  

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