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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
No. of Recommendations: 22
The three bear catchers remained in BULL mode from January 5th to March 6th. The NH/NL turned to BEAR on March 9th and remained as BEAR until April 8th. It has now returned back to BULL. Dying Bullish Euphoria turned to BEAR on April 9th. It has now been in bear mode for two market days.
Sorry I missed posting this on Thursday to inform the group. Been a bit under the weather these days.
Date Signal SMA NH/NL DBE
20260408 5 Bull Bull Bear
20260408 7 Bull Bull Bull
20260309 5 Bull Bear Bull
20260105 7 Bull Bull Bull
20251226 5 Bull Bear Bull
20251128 7 Bull Bull Bull
20251031 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250813 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250801 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250626 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250617 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250604 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250508 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250409 4 Bear Bear Bull
20250207 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250205 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250131 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250130 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250129 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250124 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250108 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250103 7 Bull Bull Bull
20241213 5 Bull Bear Bull
20241125 7 Bull Bull Bull
20241118 5 Bull Bear Bull
20241105 7 Bull Bull Bull
20241031 5 Bull Bear Bull
20241014 7 Bull Bull Bull
20241001 5 Bull Bear Bull
20240916 7 Bull Bull Bull
20240904 5 Bull Bear Bull
20240821 7 Bull Bull Bull
20240802 5 Bull Bear Bull
20240712 7 Bull Bull Bull
20240523 5 Bull Bear Bull
No. of Recommendations: 4
Dying Bullish Euphoria turned to BEAR on April 9th. It has now been in bear mode for two market days.
I have the 99 day High price of SPY just 52 days ago. Is this correct?
01/27/26 695.49
GD_
No. of Recommendations: 4
I have the 99 day High price of SPY just 52 days ago. Is this correct?
Yes. I don't know what zeelotes is smoking. :-)
BTW, the DBE is triggered 99 days after the most recent 252 day high.
Elan
No. of Recommendations: 2
I think GTR1 uses SP500 index at the close. Jan 12, 6,977.27
Aussi
No. of Recommendations: 0
I have the 99 day High price of SPY just 52 days ago.
Actually 73 days and 52 mktdays
GD_
No. of Recommendations: 2
BTW, the DBE is triggered 99 days after the most recent 252 day high.
Not so sure about that. There was always a variable of the time period by some.
GD_
No. of Recommendations: 17
Elan wrote:
Yes. I don't know what zeelotes is smoking. :-)Not sure. But it's good!
For those who have been here awhile you may know that I came up with the Bear Catcher moniker for all three:
1. SMA Slope Change
2. Nasdaq NH-NL
3. Dying Bullish Euphoria
When I presented these on the Motley Fool Mechanical Investing board, I had first done a thorough analysis that optimized them based on the full history. In other words, I arrived at settings that may have not been the original author's intent - as in the case of DBE created by Mungofitch. Ultimately, for the sake of my software, and what I presented to the board at the time I used the Nasdaq Composite as the underlying index and found the 110 day to be optimal.
So it looks like this:
https://www.zeelotes.org/Bear_Catchers_Zee_IXIC.PN...In my software the three look like this for 2026.
https://www.zeelotes.org/Bear_Catchers_Zee.PNGOf course, you may not agree with these settings and prefer others. You do you! Or in Elan's parlance, you smoke what suits you!
No. of Recommendations: 1
About DBE, this triggers if we have no new highs in last 99 days?. We had the last new heigh in Jan 28. So how do we calculate DBE.
Thank you
Paul
No. of Recommendations: 2
See
For the NHNL, do you use the 9 day weighted moving average and cut off of -0.4 that Robbie presented?
Thanks for sharing your work.
Aussi
No. of Recommendations: 5
Aussi asked: For the NHNL, do you use the 9 day weighted moving average and cut off of -0.4 that Robbie presented?
Yes, to the first question, but I'm not 100% sure on the second. That was years and years ago that it was coded up in my software. But yes, it is something like that.
No. of Recommendations: 9
The four most dangerous words in the market are "It's Different This TIme."
At the risk of getting that rubbed in my face, I think it may be a little different this time.
Because it looks to me that the market is dancing to the tune of what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz.
Down down down and up up up, depending on the news of the day.
Whatever.....
The 2 FRED indexes are disconfirming a recession and the positive SMA of the S&P 500 are both saying to be invested.
My Dad told me that the worst mistake he had ever made was to panic and call his broker to sell everything on Black Monday 1987. I took that to heart.
No. of Recommendations: 3
The 2 FRED indexes are disconfirming a recession and the positive SMA of the S&P 500 are both saying to be invested.
My Dad told me that the worst mistake he had ever made was to panic and call his broker to sell everything on Black Monday 1987. I took that to heart.
Not comparable. If you want to compare: Selling now (or not being invested) could be selling BEFORE Black Monday.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Of course, you may not agree with these settings and prefer others. You do you! Or in Elan's parlance, you smoke what suits you!
Maybe you should rename our BCC to your ZBCC if it is not the same. Very confusing.
GD_
No. of Recommendations: 3
This site is the playground of financial data mungers. Mungo, Zee, Robbie and others all fine tune their filters and decision points. Disagreements are to be expected but the consensus right now is we are near a Bull / Bear decision point.
No. of Recommendations: 3
t the consensus right now is we are near a Bull / Bear decision point.
Yes.
And the problem is that right at the inflection point you get chatter. Maybe call it whiplash.
Any small excursion will drive it across the ON/OFF boundary.
If this was easy, everybody would do it. And there would be no profit in it.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Maybe you should rename our BCC to your ZBCC if it is not the same. Very confusing.
I would prefer a small clarifying phrase in the post, such as “My Nasdaq based Dying Bullish Euphoria turned negative on April 9”.
Elan
No. of Recommendations: 1
No. of Recommendations: 8
I did a comparison of GTR1 signals and my own to see what percentage of the time we are a match. For the NH/NL it is a match 100% of the time. From 2000 to present we are a match on 94.95% of days for the SMA, and 91.84% of the days for DBE. So yes, it is probably confusing having me post these. No worries.
YEAR SMA NH/NL DBE
2000 92.86% 100.00% 66.27%
2001 97.58% 100.00% 93.55%
2002 94.05% 100.00% 89.68%
2003 90.48% 100.00% 66.27%
2004 92.06% 100.00% 97.62%
2005 95.63% 100.00% 91.67%
2006 100.00% 100.00% 94.82%
2007 98.01% 100.00% 100.00%
2008 97.63% 100.00% 89.33%
2009 95.63% 100.00% 87.70%
2010 91.67% 100.00% 93.25%
2011 98.02% 100.00% 95.63%
2012 98.80% 100.00% 95.60%
2013 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
2014 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
2015 92.06% 100.00% 79.76%
2016 90.87% 100.00% 89.68%
2017 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
2018 86.85% 100.00% 94.42%
2019 89.29% 100.00% 97.22%
2020 95.65% 100.00% 97.63%
2021 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
2022 97.21% 100.00% 92.83%
2023 79.20% 100.00% 83.60%
2024 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
2025 95.18% 100.00% 91.23%
No. of Recommendations: 3
For what its worth ... My preference for Zee's reporting would be for the way I used to report it:
Give us the date for the signal and the signal value every time the signal changes but always include the date and signal on the most recent day you have a signal even it it happens to be the same as the signal you posted a few days earlier. The way you don't have to phrase anything. The signals speak for themselves and you always know the most recent value available.
Larry
No. of Recommendations: 1
Postscript. The last fupp signal that Zee shows is:
Date Signal SMA NH/NL DBE
20260408 5 Bull Bull Bear
If the signal is truly 5 it should Bull Bear Bull.
For Bull Bull Bear it should be a signal of #
Larry
No. of Recommendations: 4
Elan wrote: I would prefer a small clarifying phrase in the post, such as “My Nasdaq based Dying Bullish Euphoria turned negative on April 9”.
Lohill wrote: My preference for Zee's reporting would be for the way I used to report it:
Wow! You guys certainly have your demands and requirements.
Sorry, but this has become more of a hassle than I'm willing to continue.
No. of Recommendations: 15
Elan wrote: I would prefer a small clarifying phrase in the post, such as “My Nasdaq based Dying Bullish Euphoria turned negative on April 9”.
Lohill wrote: My preference for Zee's reporting would be for the way I used to report it:
Wow! You guys certainly have your demands and requirements.
Sorry, but this has become more of a hassle than I'm willing to continue.
C'mon Zee, these are not demands or requirements. Both of us used the word prefer, as an attempt to prevent confusion. Your posts are always appreciated, whether they are perfect or not.
Elan
No. of Recommendations: 1
Once more try.
Postscript. The last BCC signal that Zee shows is:
Date Signal SMA NH/NL DBE
20260408 5 Bull Bull Bear
If the signal is truly 5 it should Bull Bear Bull.
For Bull Bull Bear it should be a signal of 3
Larry
No. of Recommendations: 10
I ran tests using various indexes to compare the MI Board's standard method for DBE, against my own. I don't recall when DBE was first introduced to the MI Board, but I figured it was probably back to 2000 or so. So this test is from 1/1/2000 to present. The results at the top are for the standard 99-Day, and the results at the bottom use my own parameters that I first came up with many moons ago.
This is based on holding the index LONG during a bull signal and SHORT during a bear signal.
MI Board ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 Win% Drawdown
^IXIC 987.51% 9.50% 24.67 0.42 8.04% 77% -62.26%
^NDX 1438.58% 10.96% 26.55 0.46 7.69% 85% -62.63%
^DJI 511.15% 7.13% 18.02 0.36 4.81% 85% -37.09%
^GSPC 753.72% 8.50% 18.56 0.43 4.68% 85% -33.92%
^PSE 1210.17% 10.28% 23.93 0.44 6.55% 92% -49.23%
Zee Based ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 Win% Drawdown
^IXIC 1984.27% 12.25% 23.42 0.56 5.33% 85% -37.32%
^NDX 3046.04% 14.02% 24.92 0.61 4.61% 92% -35.74%
^DJI 564.41% 7.47% 18.09 0.38 4.87% 85% -37.09%
^GSPC 888.97% 9.11% 18.59 0.47 4.83% 85% -33.92%
^PSE 1970.68% 12.22% 23.31 0.53 5.37% 100% -32.25%
It appears that my parameters have continued to do well since they were first developed. I optimized my signals for what I typically trade, which is more NDX100 than SP500.
No. of Recommendations: 11
Here is the same but with the indexes just held as LTBH at the bottom for the sake of comparison.
MI Board ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 Win% Drawdown
^IXIC 987.51% 9.50% 24.67 0.42 8.04% 77% -62.26%
^NDX 1438.58% 10.96% 26.55 0.46 7.69% 85% -62.63%
^DJI 511.15% 7.13% 18.02 0.36 4.81% 85% -37.09%
^GSPC 753.72% 8.50% 18.56 0.43 4.68% 85% -33.92%
^PSE 1210.17% 10.28% 23.93 0.44 6.55% 92% -49.23%
Zee Based ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 Win% Drawdown
^IXIC 1984.27% 12.25% 23.42 0.56 5.33% 85% -37.32%
^NDX 3046.04% 14.02% 24.92 0.61 4.61% 92% -35.74%
^DJI 564.41% 7.47% 18.09 0.38 4.87% 85% -37.09%
^GSPC 888.97% 9.11% 18.59 0.47 4.83% 85% -33.92%
^PSE 1970.68% 12.22% 23.31 0.53 5.37% 100% -32.25%
Bear Catcher - LTBH ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 Win% Drawdown
^IXIC 469.72% 6.84% 28.21 0.3 12.82% 100% -77.93%
^NDX 584.60% 7.59% 31.29 0.32 13.88% 100% -82.90%
^DJI 319.39% 5.61% 20.16 0.26 7.69% 100% -53.78%
^GSPC 368.69% 6.05% 21.34 0.28 9.16% 100% -56.78%
^PSE 856.32% 8.97% 27.27 0.37 10.82% 100% -70.74%
No. of Recommendations: 11
BTW, the DBE is triggered 99 days after the most recent 252 day high.
FWIW, the original no-new-high-lately signal was 99 days since trailing 99 day high, using intraday highs, and that signal was modified/adapted when the BCC triple was created, which is fine.
The 99 day approach seemed quite resilient even in turbulent markets like the 1930s, which was used to tune it, since the original goal was "pretty darned sure we're still in a bull", vs "not sure". In recent decades, a timeout of 110-120 days might have been better as a timing signal, as cycles have been much smoother. Other than the Covid plunge, of course.*
As an aside, the old Sjuggerud 1-2-3 model has been not so bad. It's interesting because it looks at three very different things that can affect market direction: momentum, monetary environment, and valuation. Each sub-signal is bullish around 2/3 of the time. It probably wouldn't be too hard to come up with improved substitutes for the individual models, perhaps CAPE instead of P/E etc. But given the long run up-trend of market valuations, you'd probably need something like "CAPE above 70th percentile in last N years" rather than CAPE>constant.
Jim
* Perhaps all momentum models should have a health check: do not sell on a negative crossover if the market dropped more than XX% in the last X days: based on 1987/2009/2020, true crashes are often best seen as buying opportunities (if you spot the bottom) or "just keep holding" opportunities if you didn't. If you reduce the pain of one gigantic whipsaw every decade or two, most timing models would give a much better long run result.
No. of Recommendations: 7
No. of Recommendations: 5
zeelotes said:
Wow! You guys certainly have your demands and requirements.
Sorry, but this has become more of a hassle than I'm willing to continue.
I don't get it.
It is trivially easy to compute whatever BCC signal(s) you like. So why not do it yourself instead of depending on the kindness of strangers?
Surely if you have a significant amount of money at risk and it's important to you, you'd want to run it yourself. That way you have confidence in the signal(s).
With just a little bit of scripting you can download or scrape the requisite data. And then either calculate it in a script or load it into a spreadsheet.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I don't get it.
It is trivially easy to compute whatever BCC signal(s) you like. So why not do it yourself instead of depending on the kindness of strangers?
I get it now.
In the future the BBC calculations may or may not be what you expect. No standard applies.
GD_
No. of Recommendations: 0
Bad
Should be "BCC"
GD_
No. of Recommendations: 5
rayvt wrote:
With just a little bit of scripting you can download or scrape the requisite data. And then either calculate it in a script or load it into a spreadsheet. The St Louis Fed has an API and the SP500 data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500The BCC signals are easy to see on charts.
No. of Recommendations: 3
But given the long run up-trend of market valuations, you'd probably need something like "CAPE above 70th percentile in last N years" rather than CAPE>constant.On Sjuggerud, that's why I use trailing 30y average +1SD.
<aside> frightening to look at "trailing 30 years" and realize that's when Mechanical Investing at the Fool took off, how long this last cabal has been involved in it.
