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Author: mechinv ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 1018 
Subject: January inflation numbers
Date: 02/13/2024 12:54 PM
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The Consumer Price Index for January rose slightly higher than expected.

Shelter prices accounted for much of the rise, climbing 0.6% on the month, contributing more than two-thirds of the headline increase. On a 12-month basis, shelter rose 6%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-janu...

CPI rose 3.1% YoY in Jan. vs expectations of 2.9%
CPI Core: 3.9% YoY vs 3.7% expected

CPI rose 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expected
CPI Core: 0.4% MoM vs 0.3% expected

The market is now pricing in 4 rate cuts this year instead of 6. Odds of a March interest rate cut are below 10% and odds of a May rate cut are heading lower.

See the Market Probability Tracker at https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probabili...


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Author: richinmd ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 1018 
Subject: Re: January inflation numbers
Date: 02/13/2024 4:25 PM
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With inflation showing to be in the 3-4% range, I'm not sure why any interest rates cuts are expected. The economy would really have to slow down and in general it isn't. The job market is still strong.

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Author: tecmo ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 1018 
Subject: Re: January inflation numbers
Date: 02/13/2024 7:08 PM
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With inflation showing to be in the 3-4% range, I'm not sure why any interest rates cuts are expected. The economy would really have to slow down and in general it isn't. The job market is still strong.


The 10Y bond is at 4.3%, Fed Funds is 5.25% - my sense is that these need to flatten out a bit; the job market and interest rates don't seem all that correlated recently.

tecmo
...

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Author: mechinv ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 1018 
Subject: Re: January inflation numbers
Date: 02/14/2024 6:47 AM
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According to Truflation, which gathers inflation data in real time, current inflation has declined to 1.39% YoY.

https://truflation.com/dashboard

Rents are actually falling in places like Phoenix and Austin, but remain high in places like NYC.

The cost of eating out is definitely higher. My wife and I are on vacation this week at our usual resort in Cabo, and noticed that dinner for 2 costs about 15% more than 2 years ago.

Happy Valentine's Day, to those who celebrate.
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