No. of Recommendations: 15
My most humble prediction: if there is a new equilibrium possible a year from now which is relatively calm, it will be with the world agreeing (capitulating) to Iran running the strait as cash toll booth. $1-2m per passage, and nobody shooting.
I concur with Jim's thoughts - with a political exception. It will not be an actual toll booth - that would violate the freedom of the oceans with impacts far beyond the Hormuz Strait. It will be fashioned around what Turkey does with the Turkish Straits - charge a fee for services:
"Turkey has significantly increased, and now annually updates, transit fees for merchant ships passing through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits (Turkish Straits). As of July 1, 2025, the fee rose by 15% to $5.83 per net ton for non-stop, international transit. These fees cover lighthouse, rescue, and medical services under the Montreux Convention."
That way, each side can claim victory, the additional transportation costs won't upset the world economies, and those involved will both have found an exit route.
What this doesn't address is the prior Iran leadership's desire to destroy Israel with an atomic weapon. Now unlikely to change. A centuries old war. Will the US/USSR/RUSSIA "mutual destruction" stand-off still work?
I don't think the Israel/US can capture Iran's enriched uranium via ground combat, or destroy it through air power. Too small an amount to hide in a big country. Too large a country to defeat and occupy.
That's where the negotiators must somehow find a middle ground.
