They're primarily an advertising company. And with a recession coming, advertising will slow. Furthermore, I just saw a stat that AI "search" has just passed google search. Now Google has an AI too, but so do so many others. So that can't be good for google. That's a tailwind to me.

It is a tailwind for sure. The trend is clearly moving towards skipping traditional search and just starting with AI. But there is some opportunity too. This kind of reminds of how back in the day we had Internet portals, Yahoo! Lycos, Excit, etc. You browser would open up to a homepage where you could search, check email, news readers, etc., and of course banner ads. Google murdered the Internet portal business model with a clean landing page and search that actually worked.

It feels like we are going back towards the Internet portal days. All the AI pages start with a search box, but off to the side or at the bottom are links to other AI tools, like travel tools, image generators, personalized news summaries and such. The key here might be having the best portal. Google might have a bit of an edge because of the Chrome browser, which is still by far the most popular. Safari is number two, but Google pays Apple billions each year to be the default search engine. It isn't too far fetched to assume that one day Chrome or Safari will open up to Gemini and Google's suite of AI tools by default. Interesting times.