No. of Recommendations: 7
I am getting warmed up in anticipation of more falling knives ahead. My screen today was
% Below 52 Week High: 36.00% to 100.00% (2411 matches)
Price Performance (4 Weeks): -100.00% to -30.00% (252 matches)
Out of the 252 matches, these were worth passing along. In order of market cap:
Ubiquiti (UI) up 10.4% in the last year, down 41% in the last month
Networking technology, market cap currently $37B and P/E 38
They traded flat around $575 until February, then went up to as much as $1100 in April. Traded at $1025 per share on May 6 before falling, near term bottom on May 19 at $585. Closed at $610 last week.
I want to note here that I'm using Gemini to summarize of the reason for the various drops. For UI, Q3 missed expectations (revenue $788M vs $814M consensus; non-GAAP EPS $3.88 vs 4.29 consensus)
Zoetis (ZTS) down 50% in the last year, down 30.4% in the last month.
Animal healthcare (2/3 companion an 1/3 livestock) spun out of Pfizer in 2013. Market cap currently $34B and P/E 13.
As high as $250 December 2021, they were at $112 May 6, near term bottom of $74 on May 15, and last closed at $81 last week.
They dropped their 2026 guidance from $9.68B-$9.96B to $9.825B-$10.025B, missed EPS guidance at $1.53 vs $1.62 consensus, and lost share to generics.
Primoris Services (PRIM) up 65% in the last year, down 31.5% in the last month.
Utilities and energy infrastructure services. Market cap of $6.4B and P/E 24.
Traded $50-75 for a while until April 2025. Ran up to just over $200 until May 5, near term bottom just below $100, and last closed at $117.55.
They missed on EPS $0.59 vs $0.85 consensus and revenue $1.56B vs. $1.73B consensus. They also guided down on EBITDA $480M–$500M guidance vs $569M consensus and adjusted EPS $4.80–$5.00 guidance v. $5.42–$5.63 consensus.
Shake Shack (SHAK) down 47% in the last year, down 39% in the last month.
Famous "fine-casual" burger restaurant. Market cap of $2.68B and P/E 64
Traded just over $140 last June, $96 on May 6, near term bottom around $60, and last closed at $62.71.
They missed on EPS $0.00 vs $0.11-$0.12 expected, revenue $366.7M vs $372M expected, and EBITDA $36.97M vs $45.64M forecast. Lots of the missed was apparently from a "Project Catalyst" technology revamp, weather, and store openings. Somewhat interesting. They have traded above this price 60% of the time in the last 8 years.
Fastly (FSLY) up 126% in the last year, down 31% in the last month.
Edge compute platform. Market cap of $2.55B and no earnings.
Peaked not long after their IPO, above $100 in February 2021. $8.25 in February, $35 in April, $20 also in April, $32.5 in May, and last closed at $16.32.
Sell the news situation, $170M–$176M guidance was flat from the prior quarter. Management sold substantial stock.
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I left some out because they were not real corrections (ERAS) or biopharma and I am not qualified to analyze pipelines. I also omitted FWRD because it's probably not bouncing back. I stopped around $100M market caps.
SHAK seemed the most interesting, the problems were transient and the business metrics were okay. I might open a small position. I'm curious what others think.
