I recently re-read the Growth-Trend Timing(GTT) paper. Now that several years have passed, the details of GTT are now more clear to me.


"When the 10-month SMA strategy switches inside of recessions, it tends to be profitable. When it switches outside of recessions, it tends to be unprofitable."

"GTT directs the moving average strategy to turn itself off during periods when those signals are unanimously disconfirming recession, i.e., periods where they are all confirming a positive fundamental economic backdrop."

This post was prompted because the RRS signal just turned negative, so a SMA sell signal should be obeyed. The recent months have been interesting, as the SMA and Recession Disconfirming indicators have been seesawing with the net result so far being to stay in stocks. SMA was up when Growth Trend was down and now SMA is up while Growth Trend is down.

S&P500 is +6.0% above the SMA.

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