No. of Recommendations: 7
So as I've been ruminating about the Peace Plan, I'm starting to wonder whether what happens to Gaza in the future is even all that relevant to its aims. What if it's already accomplished everything that it's intended to accomplish, because the goal isn't about Gaza?
The key immediate elements to the plan were the ceasefire and the release of hostages - which happened and were already agreed to in advance. But the next elements involve Hamas voluntarily disarming and dissolving while Israel withdraws, which seem somewhat half-baked. Someone needs to be the government, someone needs to be in charge of security in any given area. Someone has to be the people with guns that serve as the police and defense forces and government - and if it's not going to be Hamas or Israel, there needs to be another option. And that's not in place yet, and there's no real urgent movement to it being in place. Hamas never agreed to disarm and dissolve, either.
But maybe that's not the point? Hamas changed the political dynamic on 10/7, derailing the gradual movement of the Sunni nations in the region into tighter economic and possibly security relationships with Israel. There was no way that could resume while there was still active fighting in Gaza. The thinking was that ending the fighting in Gaza wasn't enough, that actual movement towards a Palestinian state was needed.
What my theory presupposes is.... what if it's not?
The Peace Plan has ended the fighting (for the moment) and gotten Israel to agree to a document that contains a roadmap to a Palestinian state and disavows annexation of Gaza. Yes, the roadmap is barely a few sentences, no one really thinks that the current Israeli government is committed to it, and no one really regards it as much movement towards a Palestinian state. But it is this government agreeing that if Hamas and the PA do certain things (which they won't, but a pin in that), then a Palestinian state. And taking annexation of Gaza off the table. It's no Oslo... but given what the lack of results after Oslo, and how foreseeable those results were after so many cans were kicked down the road in Oslo, it's not that much less than Oslo.
What if it's enough? What if the ME states have decided - in private - that they would actually like to move ahead with normalizing relations with Israel despite there not being any real movement towards Palestinian statehood? That the bare roadmap and disclaiming annexation of Gaza is sufficient? Or whether they would like to do it or not, that Trump is presenting enough of a bundle of carrots and implied threats that they feel that's their best option?
Maybe that's what the Plan is really about. It's really hard to see any of the other ME governments wanting to fight Hamas for control of Gaza, but maybe that's not the game plan. Maybe it's nothing more than keeping a lid on the fighting for a few months so that they can line up Abraham Mark II, give Hamas the option to dissolve and move towards a Palestinian state by dissolving themselves, and then everyone blaming Hamas when they "miss the opportunity to miss an opportunity." The other ME nations get the chance to start doing actual business with the major economic powerhouse in the region and with the U.S., shore up their security interests by making friends with Israel and presenting a common front against Iran, and get the fig leaf of an illusory roadmap to a Palestinian state in the Peace Plan to placate their domestic population. Combine that with being excused from any further movement on greater freedom for their domestic population, which gives them more leeway to take unpopular stands knowing the U.S. is completely uninterested in having a second Arab Spring.
Gaza can just go back to October 6th, and everyone else moves on? Everyone pretends the Peace Plan is a win for the Palestinians, and gets their economic and security deals with Israel - and the ME gets regional peace even though the Palestinians still don't have a state? The Peace Plan is so poorly-suited to solving Gaza or the Palestinian state, but so wonderfully-suited to enabling a broader arrangement, I wonder if that's the play....
