No. of Recommendations: 11
Now up to $868 / share <moan>
Nah, don't moan.
If you owned it lately, you'd be thinking of selling now. And I probably wouldn't argue.
Figures from further up thread:
Average trailing earnings yield 20 years ago through 10 years ago equated to a P/E of 23.2
From 10 to 5 years ago that average was 28.9
In the last 5 years, 38.1.
The current figure is a little over 53. That's not just a high number, but it's a whole lot higher than its own usual figures.
Sure, it's a great firm, but there are lots of great firms, no?
As a random comp, again one of the very very few good businesses in retail, ever looked at Alimentation Couche Tard? (rough translation "night owl foods") ATD.TO, or a lightly traded ADR of ANCTF in the US.
If you don't know them, it's a Canadian-HQ chain of convenience stores in multiple countries, owner of Circle K among other brands, and attached gas stations. Like Costco it has earnings growing through the years like a juggernaut and a stock that never seems to sell off, but unlike Costco it's not wildly more expensive than its usual level. Trailing P/E around 19.
It's not a perfect company, and it's not Costco. But you do get about 2.8 times the initial trend earnings yield and a relatively comparable history of EPS growth...though a bit slower lately.
I owned it for a while and made good money, unsurprisingly. Then I did something stupid. During a market sell-off, almost everything I own or follow sold off...except this (see note above: "never seems to sell off"). So I sold it to buy something else on a big dip. This move made me the "big dip", because it's rarely cheap enough to me to feel good getting back in, and I haven't owned it since. <moan>
Jim
