No. of Recommendations: 11
No I understand your point. Everything Trump does is useless. That's your point.
No, it's not. That's a point you attribute to me, because it's easier for you to address that obviously false point than to address the substantive problems with asserting that Maduro's removal will have material changes to the geopolitics surrounding Venezuela. Or even just pave the way for U.S. oil companies to want to invest there.
Then you've already lost the debate, because the totality of actions includes whacking drug boats, denying Cuba and China oil, shutting down the ghost fleet and making it tough for China to make more inroads into South America.
I will certainly agree that the blockade of Venezuela will have a marked effect on Cuba (more below), but not one that was contingent on removing Maduro. Whacking drug boats will have a trivial effect - there's always more boats, a lesson we've learned from decades of trying to interdict drugs. China's imports of Venezuelan oil are modest and easily replaced, and the "ghost fleet" hasn't been shut down - just blockaded from Venezuela. I don't think this will have too much impact on China's ability to make inroads into South America. Especially since the two major economies that haven't already joined BRI - Mexico and Brazil - were none too pleased about it. I don't think it's going to do anything to get, say, Colombia to withdraw from the Belt and Road - or to change South American countries' perceptions that China, and not the U.S., is the safer and more stable partner to form economic and political ties with.
As for Cuba, they're in a real bad spot now. The blockade of Venezuelan oil to Cuba will have a significant impact on them. Honestly, I think that's the main consequence of all of this - because the fall of Cuba (if it happens) is perhaps the only lasting thing of consequence that will come from the period of temporary influence we'll have over Venezuela's oil industry.
If you think China's Belt and Road is super popular then I invite you to research the strings it comes with:
It is super popular. Among governments. There are 150 countries that have signed on. There's tons of strings that come with it - which is why it's super smart and effective for China to do this. The whole point is that they use their economic resources to create alliances with governments - not the local villagers - based on subsidizing and lending to projects that don't make a ton of economic sense.
I very much doubt we have anything near that off their coast.
You're right - I mixed up the number of aircraft and number of vessels. The point still remains. Without making changes to the regime, the changes that we're effecting last for about as long as the naval buildup is continued. And since the naval buildup will not continue indefinitely, those changes will recede.
