No. of Recommendations: 12
The MULTI decade transition IS very clear, though you are right about the most recent period—which I agree shows a “flattening” which appears to look like “change” but is IMO a necessitated PAUSE.
I don't disagree about the *strategy* of shifting to more operating earnings. There is a stated preference for buying companies in their entirety.
But I would place the emphasis on "necessitated". It is a necessitated pause, perhaps even a necessitated ending.
I think BNSF mistakenly led us to believe that the future was in elephants, but there just aren't any more that size for sale, and may never be. It was extremely anomalous. Perhaps that was the capstone, the end of the era of big acquisitions relative to the size of Berkshire.
Consider:
Most bosses and boards of firms worth over (say) $75 billion are in a position to extract vast sums of money into their own pockets regularly (perhaps earning it, perhaps not), and have no personal motivation to agree to a sale. And if there is such a company willing to be sold, they'll arrange an auction to avoid getting sued. As the saying goes, show me the incentive and I'll show you the result.
I would love to see the trend continue, to see a couple more huge and long-term acquisitions. But it doesn't seem very likely. There may never be another material one.
Jim
