Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
No. of Recommendations: 11
In case you missed it... in 2-3 market days this week, the Russell 2000 ETF IWM busted out a 5% gain and hit a multi year high, breaking well above a 7 month trading range.
That's one of the biggest-fastest ETF pivots I've certainly ever seen.
As well, the % of small cap stocks above their 20D moving averages spiked to 84% in those few days. That's an extreme.
The antelope herd (or barking dog pack) just heard "shh but .25% interest rate drop coming". Direction change.
FC
No. of Recommendations: 3
CPI for June was lower than expected. There will likely be a rate cut at the September 18th Fed meeting, and the market is pricing that in. But the Fed could delay the cut until the November 7th meeting, and this would make the market unhappy for a few weeks in September and October. (SAHMREALTIME is nearing the 0.5 recession indicator level. Signs of a recession will prompt the Fed to cut rates. Inflation is under control. CPI is 3.0% and falling fast toward the 2.3% Fed target. PCE could hit the 2.0% Fed target in September, but that data won't be released until late October.)
No. of Recommendations: 8
The antelope herd (or barking dog pack) just heard "shh but .25% interest rate drop coming". Direction change.
There does seem to be some "millennial" thinking at the large cap end of things, as well.
I just saw this article title in the Financial Times, normally a very sober publication that doesn't overemphasize the noisy outliers.
"Nvidia could reach $50tn market cap in a decade, says top tech investor
One of the most successful tech investors said chipmaker Nvidia could be worth almost $50tn in a decade — more than the combined current market value of the entire S&P 500.
James Anderson, best known for his early bets on the likes of Tesla and Amazon, said: “The potential scale of Nvidia in the most optimistic outcome is both way higher than I’ve ever seen before..."
That's quite the forecast! For a sense of scale, the total global market cap is only about $109 trillion.
Global retail sales total only about $30 trillion.
Jim
