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https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/an...
An Ounce of Silver Is Now Worth More Than a Barrel of Oil
Neither investors nor industrial buyers can get enough of the precious metal, while a glut of crude has depressed fuel prices

By Ryan Dezember, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 27, 2025

In a year in which precious metals shined, silver stole the show.

Silver’s price blew through a 45-year-old record and has more than doubled in 2025. At $76.486, a troy ounce of silver is worth more than a barrel of oil in futures markets, where U.S. crude ended Friday at $56.74.

Aside from two brief stretches in the chaos of 2020’s Covid crash, that hasn’t happened since West Texas Intermediate oil futures began trading in 1983. Neither investors nor industry can get enough of the precious metal, while a glut of oil has swamped energy markets and depressed fuel prices.

See the linked post for the chart.
image1100×857 63.6 KB
https://discussion.fool.com/t/i-have-a-silver-coin...

Silver is also in demand from jewelers, medical-device makers, electric-vehicle manufacturers, data-center developers and especially solar-panel factories. The solar industry has been consuming nearly 30% of annual production from mining and recycling…

Either U.S. drillers, who have been pumping a record of about 13.5 million barrels a day this year, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has also been boosting output, will have to pull back or risk worsening the glut. That is especially true, according to analysts, if Russia-Ukraine peace talks or a resolution to the U.S. standoff with Venezuela loosens restrictions on oil exports… [end quote]

Over the years, when long-held ratios suddenly reverse it turns out to be temporary in the long run. When the yield of TIPS suddenly rose above the yield of Treasuries for the first time in October 2008 I bought TIPS. When oil went into contango in March 2020 (the Covid shock) I bought XOM.

Wendy

Thank you Sonny Page (RIP) for pointing me towards Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (WPM). I would not have identified it as a portion of my miner portfolio without his touting it (re-added to my portfolio on March 9, 2021 and it has appreciated 229% since then.

Jeff

Jeff, do you think that the silver price is a bubble? Do you expect it to stabilize or continue to skyrocket?

And if it skyrockets (probably alongside gold) what will happen to the USD?

Wendy

To be honest, I don't know why silver is skyrocketing. While I guess it has industrial uses, since digital photography replaced film, those are attenuated. It is not nearly as easily transported (per unit value) as gold, is not used as dowry material (except in poor countries, like Cambodia, for example). Unless it is bundled into popular precious metal ETF's ??? Otherwise, since I don't know why it is appreciating at this rate, I couldn't tell you whether it is in a bubble.

It's easier to discuss gold (also on a tear). It tends to act this way when a major currency appears to be crumbling (something I don't see immanently happening). Another reason might be that, since (as you pointed out) foreign governments have not increased their purchases of US debt, they may be stockpiling gold instead. (Two that come to mind as possible culprits are China and Russia - also possibly India).

The world order is dramatically changing. The US, for reasons that need not be discussed her, has self-inflicted an unnecessary wound by essentially withdrawing from the trade structure we established 80 years ago, has financially attacked our closest trade partners and largely credited a feeling of distrust and caution by military allies. I'm guessing there may be a universal movement towards not being solely dependent on the USD.

If that's the reason why precious metals are soaring, then their trajectory will be influenced by US economic and trade gymnastics. If it is a Euro-centric response to the new dangers of an expansionist Russia, then the level of saber-rattling coming out of Eurasia may keep things pumping.

Jeff

This interesting article shows who is holding gold and who is buying gold.

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/infographic...

The biggest recent buyers are China, India, Poland and Turkey. The U.S. and Europe hold the largest reserves but they aren't buying in significant amounts.

Frankly, if I was China I wouldn't invest my huge trade surplus in USDs or Treasuries, I'd buy gold. The U.S. will probably inflate away our gigantic fiscal deficits so the USDs will depreciate over time. And the likeliest response will be monetization of the debt -- permanent QE by the Fed, buying Treasuries with fiat dollars to suppress market interest rates.

But that doesn't tell us why silver is skyrocketing or whether it's just a bubble.

Wendy

As a contrarian, when I see a chart that is so different from decades of precedent -- declining oil prices and skyrocketing silver prices -- I'm inclined to buy XOM and short SLV (except that I don't do shorts because they're too risky).

What do you think?
Wendy

As a contrarian, when I see a chart that is so different from decades of precedent -- declining oil prices and skyrocketing silver prices -- I'm inclined to buy XOM...

Our family assets evolved from a petroleum refining base, where both of our paychecks were from. It has always been a rollercoaster wrt profitability. Given what we have seen industry wide in the past 4 decades, we admittedly have a bias against investing in it, and frankly the only non-ETF held stock we hold comes from not selling stock given in bonuses and remaining stock options which are quite worthless at this time.

In order to grab that XOM or other refiner stock that you are tempted by, we would have to define a likely catalyst that would change the share price dramatically for the better. Currently I am seeing negative drags, not positive. It seems to me as though while the need for oil will be unlikely to totally evaporate, the alternatives we see evolving will continue to suppress it's value. That said, we have seen and been impacted by some incredibly stupid decisions made by this industry, and have little respect for it. It seems to me that with the cyclical nature of the industry, it's better for a trading mentality than our buy and hold type personality. YMMV.

IP

"do you think that the silver price is a bubble?"

I vote for bubble.
Gold chart 1915 to present:
https://www.bankrate.com/investing/gold-price-hist...

Silver chart 1915 to present:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver...

You will note gold & silver move somewhat in tandem.
Both rose during stagflation in the 1970's.
Then declined rested. Hitting a low point during 1990's stock market golden era.
Then began to rise finally hitting former highs in 2006-07 [anticipating 2008 RE bubble burst?] to peak in 2011.
Then declined and rested until 2024 and took off again.

It seems to me that the time to buy silver or gold is when the economy looks rosy and the stock market is doing well. Then the price of gold or silver are both down.

ishares has a silver ETF [SLV]. It started in 2006. I suggest one go to Morningstar.com and enter SLV. Than go to chart and enter maximum time frame. Then enter SPY [S&P 500] and compare the returns. Remarkably SLV has a similar return as SPY, but only because of the recent surge. SLV has long periods of poor performance. It does well only when investors are worried about the US economic system.

Solar, I guess?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-hedge-fund-...


Jeff

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