No. of Recommendations: 9
This update is to Kenneth Lee’s Benchmark Investing picks based on the latest Monday’s data release. The S&P500 continues to go down since the Iran War began. Currently the market is down about -5.6% year-to-date. With this update there are 2 companies in the DJIA 30 that are below their downside price targets. They are NVDA -42% and AMZN -53%. Among this select group both would qualify as a BI pick.
If you are interested in following along with this methodology against a broader range of stocks outside of the Dow30, these picks are posted here under this post on a regular basis as trades occur (BUY, SELL, and ADD).
Market Valuation (Dow 30): Market Valuation (Dow 30):
The DOW30 market is at market parity according to the BI method of valuation.
Downside: -21%
Upside: +21%
Long Buy Rules: I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which are the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when they are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)
5. ROE and BV current figures must be updated by VL
Sell Rules: I am using the following TTD rules to Sell Long positions:
Criteria (1 OR 2 OR 5, AND 3 AND 4):
1. Price Appreciation < Market Average Appreciation
2. Current Price > BI HiPrice
3. Hold time > 365 days per cycle
4. ROE & BV must be current
5. No longer listed as a market average component
Summary of Results: VL Current ROE/BV Down Up %<10Y %<10Y EPS Div 3-5Y 3-5Y VL3-5Y VL18mo ROE
Ticker Date Price Updated Price Price Down Down4Qs Delta Yield VL L$ VL H$ % Chg % Chg <2STD Name
CAT 6-Feb-26 681 FALSE 331 469 106% 165% 13% 0.9 545 735 -7% -14% FALSE Caterpillar Inc.
MCD 13-Feb-26 309 FALSE 9% 2.4 415 505 45% 8% TRUE McDonald's Corp.
CVX 20-Feb-26 202 FALSE 96 133 110% 118% 7% 3.6 195 240 9% -11% FALSE Chevron Corp.
JPM 20-Feb-26 287 TRUE 226 318 27% 54% 10% 2.3 310 380 19% 10% FALSE JPMorgan Chase
BA 27-Feb-26 195 FALSE 128% - 295 440 78% -10% TRUE Boeing
TRV 27-Feb-26 297 TRUE 283 365 5% 23% -2% 1.5 380 465 41% 13% FALSE Travelers Cos.
UNH 27-Feb-26 276 FALSE 283 402 -2% -12% 9% 3.1 365 545 60% 23% TRUE UnitedHealth Group
AMGN 27-Feb-26 348 FALSE 17% 2.8 345 465 15% -7% TRUE Amgen
VZ 6-Mar-26 49.98 FALSE 38 50 31% 53% 4% 5.6 60 75 36% -10% FALSE Verizon Communic.
CSCO 6-Mar-26 77.65 TRUE 51 71 51% 78% 8% 2.2 95 120 38% 13% FALSE Cisco Systems
HD 13-Mar-26 321 FALSE 5% 2.8 405 495 35% 26% TRUE Home Depot
SHW 13-Mar-26 304 TRUE 260 395 17% 39% 6% 1.0 445 605 68% 17% FALSE Sherwin-Williams
PG 13-Mar-26 144 TRUE 141 182 3% 7% 3% 2.9 190 230 43% 13% FALSE Procter & Gamble
NVDA 20-Mar-26 173 TRUE 300 562 -42% 8% 73% 0.0 280 420 94% 29% FALSE NVIDIA Corp.
AAPL 20-Mar-26 248 FALSE 111% 11% 0.4 315 455 58% 23% TRUE Apple Inc.
JNJ 27-Mar-26 235 TRUE 179 224 31% 42% 7% 2.2 225 275 5% 7% FALSE Johnson & Johnson
MRK 27-Mar-26 114 TRUE 66 88 73% 10% -43% 3.0 145 175 39% 11% FALSE Merck & Co.
HON 2-Jan-26 222 FALSE 191 261 16% 23% -1% 2.1 250 305 23% -6% TRUE Honeywell Int'l
MMM 2-Jan-26 141 FALSE 114 167 24% 32% 7% 2.0 135 200 22% 18% FALSE 3M Company
GS 2-Jan-26 814 FALSE 402 629 102% 115% 3% 2.0 765 1035 11% 23% FALSE Goldman Sachs
KO 9-Jan-26 74.75 FALSE 61 77 23% 26% 7% 2.8 75 95 18% 6% FALSE Coca-Cola
WMT 16-Jan-26 119 TRUE 55 79 116% 154% 17% 0.8 125 155 14% 11% FALSE Walmart Inc.
NKE 16-Jan-26 52.37 FALSE 55 88 -5% -4% -15% 3.1 70 105 72% -14% TRUE NIKE Inc. 'B'
DIS 23-Jan-26 99.51 FALSE 122 184 -18% -9% 14% 1.5 150 225 101% 28% FALSE Disney (Walt)
AXP 30-Jan-26 296 TRUE 226 359 31% 51% 9% 1.2 300 450 27% 22% FALSE Amer. Express
V 30-Jan-26 302 FALSE 381 513 -21% -2% 11% 0.9 390 475 59% 0% TRUE Visa Inc.
IBM 30-Jan-26 242 FALSE 124 180 95% 115% 5% 2.9 255 315 12% 24% FALSE Int'l Business Mach.
MSFT 30-Jan-26 382 FALSE 396 613 -4% 17% 14% 1.0 705 860 112% 28% FALSE Microsoft Corp.
CRM 30-Jan-26 195 FALSE 1023 1785 -81% -62% -32% 0.9 400 600 157% 0% TRUE Salesforce Inc.
AMZN 30-Jan-26 205 TRUE 433 727 -53% -39% 10% - 350 475 82% 24% FALSE Amazon.com
Dow30 45,577 35,869 54,847 2.1 55,199 73,271 Dow Jones Industrial Average
Appreciation Potential -21% +21% 21% 61% 46% 10%
AllTooFoolish's CAPS Portfolio: If you are interested in seeing this method applied to a broader universe of stocks, follow my actively managed Benchmark Investing portfolio using an update to this post. I have been using this methodology for many years with great success. In this post you will find my current dynamic managed portfolio and can see my most recent activities as they occur.
Notable activity in my Managed BI portfolio over the past several months:
• BUY: TTD on Jan 23, 2026, meets all criteria -41% BI downside price target.
• SELL: EPAM on Jan 30, 2026, limited upside potential compared to the overall market. Held this stock 451 days. The market returned about 19% since entry and EPAM returned nearly +31% (including dividends).
• ADD: CRM on Jan 30, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -58%.
• BUY: DXCM on Feb 6, 2026, downside price target -53%.
• ADD: ALGN on Feb 6, 2026, BI Downside target -44%.
• ADD: NVDA on Mar 20, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -40%.
• ADD: PAYC on Mar 27, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -52%.
I will continue to track and update two different Portfolios in 2026. Both these portfolios will be held for the entire year.
2026 BI Managed PortfolioThe first portfolio (Managed) will be a continuation of last year picks that have not yet hit a Sell signal plus any new picks that qualify using the latest results. These are noted as “ADD” or “BUY” during each quarterly update. Year-to-date it is outperforming the market.
ALGN, TECH, CAH, CMG, EOG, TMUS, LKQ, CHTR, BALL, NVDA, MOS, MRK, PFE, PAYC, AKAM, KDP, TAP, SLB, ALB, L, PYPL, CRM, EPAM (sold), AMZN, TTD (bought), DXCM (bought)
BI Managed Portfolio Total Return Year-to-Date +1.2%
S&P 500 Total Return Year-to-Date -5.3%
The largest winner to date is EOG +38%.
The biggest loser this year is TTD -36%
The second portfolio (Current) will only include picks that qualified based on the Buy rules using the results at the very beginning of the current year and will be held for the entire year without change. Year-to-date it is outperforming the market.
2026 Current PortfolioPCAR, ALGN, COO, CHTR, BALL, MOS, PFE, KDP, TAP TTD, SLB, CRM
BI Current Portfolio Total Return Year-to-Date -1.6%
S&P 500 Total Return Year-to-Date -5.3%
The largest winner to date is SLB +31%
The biggest loser this year is TTD -42%
Disclosures and Useful TermsVL Date is the date of the last summary report update from Valueline as indicated in the post’s subject line. All data sources from the Valueline Dow30 reports are made publicly available on their website.
https://research.valueline.com/research#list=dow30...Current Price is the closing price of the stock as reported by VL, which is usually a few days behind the date
of the time period mentioned in this posting’s subject line.
• ROE/BV Updated is an indication if the stock’s BV and ROE have been updated through the end of the Benchmark evaluation time frame.
• 10Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.
• 10Yr Down4Qs is the 10 year downside price averaged over the previous 4 quarter’s valuation price.
• 10Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.
Both upside and downside are calculated using the method outlined in TTD book. Also, a discussion of calculating the upside and downside can be found here:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20916205&so......
• %<10Y Downside is the current price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.
• EPS Future Delta is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters.
• I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which are updated as soon as new earnings are reported.
• Div Yield is the current % dividend payout ratio per share.
• 3-5 Y Low/Hi Price Est. is the downside/upside price estimate which is calculated using the projections of Book Value and ROE as discussed in TTD.
• Min VL Price Appreciation is the expected change in price from current price to low end VL projected 3-5 year appreciation price.
• VL Price 18 Price Appreciate is the VL projected % change in price from the current price within the next 18 months.
• ROE >2STD is part of a margin of safety consideration, which is briefly discussed in TTD on pg 70-71.
I compare the current year's ROE versus the last 10 years of ROE data. If the current ROE is greater than average (10 Yr ROE) + (2 * stdev(10 Yr ROE)), then this column is TRUE, else it is FALSE. This tells me that the stock's ROE is much higher than its historic average and should therefore be avoided.
-AllTooFoolish
