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That's the key to Kamala winning Michigan. There are 300,000 Arab and Muslim residents of Michigan -- many of whom have parted ways with Biden on the issue.

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If she made the case that she didn't know what was going on when the average putz with a smartphone and a new site knew what was going on......

........yes she'd be very believable.

What a dumbass lol.

`<< If she made the case that she didn't know what was going on when the average putz with a smartphone and a new site knew what was going on......

........yes she'd be very believable.

What a dumbass lol. >>

No. Not that Harris didn't know that there was a genocide going on in Gaza, but that Harris may not have supported it (like 50% of the Israeli population), and lacked Biden's fawning public support of Netanyahu.

But as albaby1 points out, the damage may already be done with Trump the likely winner and Joe Biden's legacy looking at lot like Ruth Bader Ginsburg's (an old fart who stayed in the saddle too long).

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intercst: But as albaby1 points out, the damage may already be done with Trump the likely winner...

Puhleeze.

There are 105 days left in the race. This nonsense that the rapist felon is "the likely winner" is just complete bullsh!t. If republicans were so convinced that the rapist felon will trounce Harris, they wouldn't be tearing their hair out right now and crying about how unfair it is to Joe that they (republicans) forced him to withdraw from the race. And they wouldn't be laying the groundwork for Trump to skip the debate.

Since the announcement by Biden, more than $65 million in donations have passed through ActBlue and they think they may raise $100 million of one 24-hour period.

In the meantime, republicans have changed their attacks against Harris from "OMG, she will ban plastic straws!" and "Gee, ain't her laugh funny!" to this:

LAURA LOOMER, who Trump has praised as "terrific" and "very special": "We cannot and should not accept having a drug using prostitute as our President.

We need to have standards here in our country.

We deserve better than a woman who brags about blowing married men and smoking weed. @KamalaHarris is unfit to be President.

https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/18153447878278926...

Maybe it's just me but that doesn't seem like a winning message from a confident team.

Trump is more beatable now than he was 24-hours ago. And he's only going to go downhill in the days and weeks ahead.

{{ There are 105 days left in the race. }}

We'll know in a couple of weeks when we get swing state polls showing the "Kamala Effect".

National polling means nothing. The election is being decided by about 100,000 undecided voters spread across 5 or 6 states. Both campaigns probably know these 100,000 people by name, address and full credit report.

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Puhleeze.

There are 105 days left in the race. This nonsense that the rapist felon is "the likely winner" is just complete bullsh!t. If republicans were so convinced that the rapist felon will trounce Harris, they wouldn't be tearing their hair out right now and crying about how unfair it is to Joe that they (republicans) forced him to withdraw from the race. And they wouldn't be laying the groundwork for Trump to skip the debate.

It's important to remember that Harris is also losing to Trump in the polls. She has favorability ratings almost as bad as Biden. A lot of voters think poorly of her. The fact that the GOP rather run against Biden than Harris doesn't mean that they think they're trailing Harris. Just that they thought Biden was the weaker candidate and an easier opponent - and the one they'd tailored their campaign to.

Harris faces many of the same problems that Biden faced - voters prefer Trump on the economy and the border, and those are two very salient issues this campaign cycle. She's not Biden, so maybe voters will see a little daylight between her and things they disliked about the Administration - but not a whole lot. Which is why she's trailing Trump in the polls.

She won't lack for money, but she faces some enormous obstacles taking over at this late date. She's just taking over at the top of the ticket, and has to assemble her top-level infrastructure. As the Veep she needs less introduction/donor facetime than almost anyone else standing in - but it's still something that she's just starting to do at the top of the ticket. And, of course, she's stepping out from the understudy into the starring role - almost certainly she'll make some mistakes and fumbles in the next 105 days, and she's got less time to get her feet under her.

And there's the old thermostatic model of politics. If Harris were to win, the Democrats will have controlled the WH for 16 of 20 years (from Obama to the end of her first term). That doesn't often happen - historically, voters have been reluctant to give one party that much control for so long a period of time. If one party's been in charge a lot over recent history, they're inclined to give the other party the reins for a while.

Harris absolutely could win - the bookies put the race at 60/40 for Trump right now (Harris' personal chances are lower, but that will tighten up once she actually becomes the nominee and the possibility of a different nominee goes away). But that's not the most likely outcome.

So yeah - the race is winnable, but Harris starts off as a serious underdog. The most likely outcome is that Trump wins.

Trump is more beatable now than he was 24-hours ago. And he's only going to go downhill in the days and weeks ahead.

Wishful thinking, just wait till Trump/Vance start dumping on the Border Czar and her ten million illegals, among them murders, rapist, drug runners, sex trade and child slave labor to say the least.

Wishful thinking, just wait till Trump/Vance start dumping on the Border Czar and her ten million illegals, among them murders, rapist, drug runners, sex trade and child slave labor to say the least.

Quick question - why would ten million illegal immigrants be hers?

Usually, the "ten million" number refers to the total number of people who are present in the country unlawfully (with big uncertainty - often it's given as between 10-12 million). But the overwhelming majority of them would not have entered during the Biden Administration. Most illegal immigrants have been here for more than a decade. Typically, only about 1 in 5 have entered during the last five years.

https://immigrationforum.org/article/explainer-the...

It's exceptionally unlikely that the number of illegal immigrants that could be attributed to the current Administration would be anywhere close to 10 million. That's probably off by about an order of magnitude or more. The total illegal population isn't much higher than it was at any point in the Trump Administration, certainly not as much as a million people:

https://cis.org/Report/Estimating-Illegal-Immigran...

It's important to remember that Harris is also losing to Trump in the polls. She has favorability ratings almost as bad as Biden.

No it’s important to remember that her image is a mile wide (she’s the VP) and an inch deep, because nobody really knows anything about her. The polls are entirely meaningless at the moment. They will continue to be meaningless for at least two weeks, until she outlines some policy, makes a terrible gaffe, or endorses Communism as a reasonable alternative to what we have.

Polls only measure what people know, not what they think they know about something they don’t know. There is a segment of the electorate that knows enough to have an opinion, but it’s a tiny sliver. Give it time.

Harris faces many of the same problems that Biden faced - voters prefer Trump on the economy and the border, and those are two very salient issues this campaign cycle.

That’s the nice thing about coming in with a clean slate. You can disavow the past even if you can’t escape it entirely. She has the opportunity (no guarantee) to finesse both issues, although I doubt she will manage both. On the border, (if I was her) I would blame Republicans. “We tried to make changes, but any bills we put forward, even with bi-partisan support, were torpedoed because Donald Trump told Republicans to do it. He put his campaign first, not the country.” That would have to be hammered home many times in many venues and by many people, but eventually that storyline could blunt the attacks.

As for the economy, 100 days is a short time, but a Fed interest rate drop and continuing headlines about stock-market highs will help. People at the bottom of the economic ladder won’t be swayed, they see what’s left in the change purse at the end of the shopping trip, but for others, again it can be blunted.

Meanwhile, *women*. Donald Trump’s USSC picks destroyed Roe and the Republicans (including 2025) threaten even birth control via the Comstock Act. That might not be such a big deal for MAGA men, but I’ll wager it will go a long way with women.

Meanwhile you energize the black vote (again), you bring in the youth vote (Taylor Swift will help) and you get a reasonable majority share of women. This is not out of reach, but is still probably slightly less likely than likely. But it’s a whole lot MORE likely than it was 48 hours ago.

There are 300,000 Arab and Muslim residents of Michigan -- many of whom have parted ways with Biden on the issue.

Until the moment of truth has come and gone, nobody has parted ways with nobody.

When that ballot is staring you in the face and you have the opportunity to aid Trump or oppose Trump, that's when one has or hasn't 'parted ways.'

Until then, it's all talk.

preface: biden and his team got so many things right, and more importantly was able to execute in ~4 remarkable years.

the gaza genocide was his biggest failure, as also for his team, and not sure how much was under his direction.

not only were team biden unable to separate judaism from israeli nationalism and vengeance, but simply failed to distinguish wrong from right.
on top of that, they got played (and continue to pay out) on every single dealing with bebe, who is a war criminal that needs to perpetuate the slaughter to stay in power.

as tragic as this is, it changes nothing for the largest factions in play, MAGA vs anti-trump.

It's exceptionally unlikely that the number of illegal immigrants that could be attributed to the current Administration would be anywhere close to 10 million.

-------------

Of course not, when catch and releases confers legality until some distant court date. Surely you understand most people don't use the narrow definition you rely on to undermine their legitimately felt outrage. FYI, no man on the street would agree there have only been 1,000,000 under 3.5 years of Biden when the daily numbers reported are 4,000 or 8,000, sometimes 12,000, sometimes more.

Of course not, when catch and releases confers legality until some distant court date. Surely you understand most people don't use the narrow definition you rely on to undermine their legitimately felt outrage. FYI, no man on the street would agree there have only been 1,000,000 under 3.5 years of Biden when the daily numbers reported are 4,000 or 8,000, sometimes 12,000, sometimes more.

But the "man on the street" probably doesn't understand that a border "encounter" (which can hit those levels) is not nearly the same thing as an asylum request or other outcome that results in a person staying here for any length of time.

Look, it's just not possible. The entire population of the U.S. has only increased by about 4.4 million people since 2020:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_...

It's literally impossible for 10 million new people to now be residing in the country. It's impossible for there to be 4 million new people to now be residing in the country that arrived illegally and/or are pending asylum claims (because the population is growing through other means, including legal immigration).

Why the disconnect? Partially because Title 42 expulsions were running until May of 2023 - it's barely been over a year since that program was discontinued. So a lot of the border encounters, up until May 2023, resulted in immediate expulsion under Title 42 rather than a Title 8 apprehension. So in 2021, about 60% of encounters resulted in expulsion; 2022, about 50%; and even in 2023, it was running about 30-40% until the program shut down.

The other reason is that a large chunk of the people who do get detained through Title 8 processes end up not staying in the country anyway. Sure, some can apply for asylum, and some are released through a Notice to Appear/Own Recognizance order. But about 40% of them leave immediately. Most of them through the Expedited Removal process - but a big chunk are tossed out under prior expulsion orders, and a non-trivial chunk just leave voluntarily.

And while there isn't enough capacity in the system by a long shot, people do eventually have their hearings and are either deported or granted asylum. Last year about 140K migrants were deported after losing Title 8 hearings, and another 60K were granted asylum.

Of the six or seven million border encounters since Biden took office (give or take), maybe 2.5-3.0 million or so resulted in a Title 8 apprehension (the rest were immediately expelled under Title 42), of which maybe 1.5-1.8 million or so were "catch and release" folks remaining in the country. Over those three and a half years, another half million or so were either deported or legalized.

So, no - there's not "ten million" new people in the U.S. as a result of unlawful border crossings. That's off by at least an order of magnitude.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/custody-and-tra...
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement...

It's exceptionally unlikely that the number of illegal immigrants that could be attributed to the current Administration would be anywhere close to 10 million. That's probably off by about an order of magnitude or more. The total illegal population isn't much higher than it was at any point in the Trump Administration, certainly not as much as a million people:

“Matthews: Illegal immigrants double under Biden — and that’s just the start”
SNIP
“The number of illegal immigrants in the country has roughly doubled under President Biden. The United States had some 10.2 million illegal immigrants in 2020, and another 10 million have entered during Biden’s presidency. If the 20 million illegal immigrants were all in one state, it would be tied with New York for the fourth most populated state.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/4423296-matthews-illeg...

SNIP
“Under President Biden’s watch, there have been over 8 million migrant
encounters nationwide, 6.7 million of which have been at the Southwest border.
Worse yet, over 1.7 million known gotaways—illegal immigrants who have evaded
Border Patrol— are now living in the interior of the United States without
documentation and without having undergone any vetting by immigration officials.
The serious national security concerns shared by Republicans have fallen on deaf ears,

https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/ogr_icymi.p...

“The number of illegal immigrants in the country has roughly doubled under President Biden. The United States had some 10.2 million illegal immigrants in 2020, and another 10 million have entered during Biden’s presidency. If the 20 million illegal immigrants were all in one state, it would be tied with New York for the fourth most populated state.”

First, it's not ten million. Total encounters by Border Patrol for 1.2 million in 2021, 2.2 million in 2022, 2.0 million in 2023, and 1.3 million YTD (note that the USBP year runs Sept-Oct, not calendar year, so the 2021 is just for the portion of the year after Biden took office). About 6.7 million.

Next, about half of the 6.7 million that "have entered" during Biden's presidency were immediately ejected under Title 42. They didn't spend any time running around the country. Again, for most of the Biden administration (all of 2021 and 2022, and a good chunk of 2023), the Title 42 expulsion policy was still in effect. Most of the people who were encountered during that time were immediately expelled from the country.

Of the 3 million who came in under Title 8, about 40% of those also immediately left the country. About a third were eligible for expedited removal, another few percent had outstanding removal orders, and another few percent left on their own rather than stay after they had gotten caught.

You have maybe about 1.8 million (roughly) that "entered" the country illegally but weren't immediately sent home. Against that you have maybe 500-600K that have either been deported or legalized over the last 3.5 years.

So, no. You don't have 10 million new illegal migrants hanging around the country. You might have seen the illegal population increase by a little more than a million people during the President's term. Nowhere close to ten million. Because, again, the entire population of the entire country has only increased by four million people over that time frame.

These folks are trying to mislead you by pointing to "entries" and creating the false impression that they nearly all stayed around, when in fact about 80% of them left almost immediately. Don't fall for it, LM!

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement...
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/custody-and-tra...

These folks are trying to mislead you by pointing to "entries" and creating the false impression that they nearly all stayed around, when in fact about 80% of them left almost immediately. Don't fall for it, LM!

----------------------------------

That 20% residual you allow for seems to cause much larger problems for the major cities and sanctuary states who have to house, feed and provide medical care than such a negligible number would suggest.

These folks are trying to mislead you by pointing to "entries" and creating the false impression that they nearly all stayed around, when in fact about 80% of them left almost immediately. Don't fall for it, LM!

A prior link..
Am I not to believe a report from, the following?
“The House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, in conjunction with the House
Committee on Homeland Security, conducted numerous interviews with Chief Border
Patrol Agents who candidly spoke, as they have in the past, about the serious crisis
unfolding at our Southern Border. The joint report entitled, “Crisis at the Border:
Reports from the Frontline” highlights just how important the fight for border security
really is.”

Under President Biden’s watch, there have been over 8 million migrant
encounters nationwide, 6.7 million of which have been at the Southwest border.
Worse yet, over 1.7 million known gotaways—illegal immigrants who have evaded
Border Patrol— are now living in the interior of the United States without
documentation and without having undergone any vetting by immigration officials.

https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/ogr_icymi.p...

That 20% residual you allow for seems to cause much larger problems for the major cities and sanctuary states who have to house, feed and provide medical care than such a negligible number would suggest.

Not really. Remember, folks who are awaiting the disposition of their asylum claims or other hearings aren't legally allowed to work (among other disabilities that come with being here without a visa) for a minimum of six months after entry, and for many even longer after that. Sure, some will be able to earn some money unlawfully in the informal economy - but there are limited opportunities there, so many (most?) will not be able to support themselves. It doesn't take all that many people in that situation to cause problems for the communities they land in, especially if they're all bunched up in their arrival.

The large number of migrants that came in during the peak did cause major problems. I don't disagree with that. I count the Administration's failure to recognize that as one of the three major political blunders they committed, and which have led to Biden's (and now Harris') problems in the polls against Trump. But that doesn't turn the number of migrants into ten million (when the entire population of the whole country hasn't increased by half that).

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