Post #1123 by lizgdal on the Mechanical Investing board

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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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Small caps are up today, maybe in response to no more Fed rate hikes planned (and probably 3 rate cuts in 2024). NHNL has gone Bullish. See the discussion ("Thinking that it was time for the small caps to finally join this bull market... Don’t fight the Fed in both directions.") at
https://discussion.fool.com/t/us-feds-are-done-wit...

I expect inflation to continue falling and PCE inflation to hit 2.0 in 4Q 2024. (CPI less shelter is 1.5. Shelter CPI lags ZORI, and ZORI is now at pre-pandemic levels.)

PCE inflation is now 3.0.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1cKz8

The Fed's Summary of Economic median projection for 4Q 2024 PCE inflation is 2.4. This projection hasn't changed much since March 2022:

projDate  for4Q2024
 Mar-22      2.3
 Jun-22      2.2
 Sep-22      2.3
 Dec-22      2.5
 Mar-23      2.5
 Jun-23      2.5
 Sep-23      2.5
 Dec-23      2.4

Low inflation and Fed rate cuts are both bullish for stocks.

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