No. of Recommendations: 2
Jim (and others of course): One thing you said is vividly in my mind: "3 months after the end of a secular bull the indexes are down only 10% => You have a lot of time to get out".
(I hope this resembles what you said, as I donīt intend to put words in your mouth you might have never said.)
I think that time has come. The hype is gone. Since at least 1/2 year the Mag 7 are not magnicifent any longer (Exception: Google) and - rotation - the boring stuff is holding up far better (Johnson&Johnson, Berkshire, Markel, White Mountains, Dollar Tree/General, Hershey...).
I am not interested in "getting out", as I AM out since 1 year, having then even reduced my Berkshire holdings 1/3. My mentality is that of a skeptic, doubting everything. That led me to miss this many years long bull run --- and to an affinity for shorting. That worked well with Berkshire 2024/25 --- and ended badly before with T... (the stock with the unspeakable name) and SaaS.
Lesson: I might be correct regarding direction, but my timing is shitty. Too early in, too early out, missing the best. So because of my affinity to shorting my heretic question is about timing that (doubly heretic: Shorting+Timing).
Jim (and others), letīs assume for a moment youīd have so much conviction that "itīs over" and reversion to the mean (or rather below) is coming, that youīd intend to use that with puts, BIG (Gambling, the 3rd heresy).
Since 2-3 months I am short Palantir+Nvidia, but not in a big way. WHEN would you go in big with puts (Yes, I know: "Never!!!" --- try to see it hypothetical; I am responsible for bad outcomes of my actions, not you). With a good part of the Mag 7 already 20-30% down from their highs (Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir): Is it already too late?
2nd part: With WHAT would you go in big? Puts on what (Mag 7 only seems too risky)?
