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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: Minor Major Market Bottom Indicator
Date: 04/15/26 3:53 AM
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Just a bit of a follow up...

[the short term bottom signal] also triggered the last 3 trading days 2026-03-18 / 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-20
Since the signals often come in runs, especially during cascading market falls, the conservative interpretation is a buy the first day that it does NOT trigger.
...
FWIW, no signal from 2026-03-23, so the model would suggest a short term buy today. Future suggest an open flat from yesterday's close, S&P 6581.


(I corrected my typo of the date of the post, Monday is 3 days after Friday the 20th, not one day, duh)

It has been 22 calendar days since the suggested short term buy. Though the market didn't bottom till a few days later, the S&P 500 closed yesterday up 5.87% from close on the "buy" day (Mar 23, the first full day after a string of bottom signals), or up 6.33% from the next day's market open (Mar 24). I'd call that a win.

The short term bottom signal doesn't say very much on average after about a month, so this signal's predictive power (if any) is fading away soon. Time to look for other omens : )
I see that the trend of Nasdaq NH-NL is certainly rocketing since its low on March 27, so maybe the short term will be a bit longer yet?

Jim
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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