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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 5385 
Subject: Re: Minor Major Market Bottom Indicator
Date: 04/15/26 3:53 AM
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Just a bit of a follow up...

[the short term bottom signal] also triggered the last 3 trading days 2026-03-18 / 2026-03-19 / 2026-03-20
Since the signals often come in runs, especially during cascading market falls, the conservative interpretation is a buy the first day that it does NOT trigger.
...
FWIW, no signal from 2026-03-23, so the model would suggest a short term buy today. Future suggest an open flat from yesterday's close, S&P 6581.


(I corrected my typo of the date of the post, Monday is 3 days after Friday the 20th, not one day, duh)

It has been 22 calendar days since the suggested short term buy. Though the market didn't bottom till a few days later, the S&P 500 closed yesterday up 5.87% from close on the "buy" day (Mar 23, the first full day after a string of bottom signals), or up 6.33% from the next day's market open (Mar 24). I'd call that a win.

The short term bottom signal doesn't say very much on average after about a month, so this signal's predictive power (if any) is fading away soon. Time to look for other omens : )
I see that the trend of Nasdaq NH-NL is certainly rocketing since its low on March 27, so maybe the short term will be a bit longer yet?

Jim
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