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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: fcorelli   😊 😞
Number: of 3957 
Subject: Re: Technical Indicators & Market Timing
Date: 01/30/2023 8:46 PM
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Numerical definitions of "blood in the streets" with backtests are more helpful.

I cannot meet all of your requirements but I feel remiss if I remain silent.
Blood-in-the-streets? I have read over the years from various sources (So, sorry I cannot cite one. I cannot remember who taught me to recognize the letter "A" either but someone did.) that a very high VIX number in the 40's or higher would signal that blood-in-the-streets aka capitulation moment. It has to come as a final phase of an extended market correction that has seen the usual general pattern of ups and downs and false signals all without this VIX surge. Also, a correction such as we've been having since Jan 2022 might not be severe enough to even get into this before a turnaround. The blood/streets concept really only applies to a "The bigger they are, the harder they fall" market event. That's why I say it can take a loooong-azzed time to score with this one. When people are being greedy... get greedy!, or you'll miss out on possibly years of returns. If, as now, you might be out, you could be waiting 10 more years for a true bloody streets opportunity

Back test? I can't find any site nowadays that gives me all the info I want. Bigcharts only goes back to 1978 and the VIX was only created in 1989 or something, so to get comprehensive would be a trick.
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