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BTW: Microsoft is starting to look a bit tasty as well, at $390ish

I think "fair value" is around $415, so we are a bit below that, which happens occasionally. I would not be surprised to see the stock trade above $450 this time next year...


tecmo
...

I've been eyeing MSFT as well, debating about simply going long, or alternatively selling puts.

Purely subjective, not quantitative:
I like the measured steps Nadella is taking with AI, both development and integration into products https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/03/16/introd...
Also playing in the quantum computing space https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00527-z
Both a work-in-progress, we'll see, but MSFT doesn't seem in danger of being a Kodak or an Intel and not adapting to technological change.
It also seems safer to invest in a company like Microsoft than in single companies in the AI or quantum computing space.

I really don't like the error rate of current AI https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?bid=125, but long-term I'm quite bullish on AI potential positive impact on businesses and productivity.
I'm planning to wait a little bit to see the reaction from the huge number of users of Microsoft products with AI fully integrated.
Has MSFT put up sufficient guardrails on the AI in its products such that it's a net (big!) positive, or will uses complain of errors due to AI 'hallucinations'?

Nvidia selling at forward PE of 27 vs MSFT 30.

Trailing and forward Sales and EPS growth for NVDA substantially higher then MSFT.

NVDA much more interesting after almost 9% fall today.

Seeking Alpha shows EPS for 2026 = 4.49; 2027 = 5.71.
3-5 year projected EPS CAGR of 35%. That’s almost doubling every 2 years.

The TTM PE of 42 could be halved in 2 years if 35% EPS growth is met and share price remains unchanged.

Here’s rooting for more economic quackery announcements in the short term.

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