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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Author: Timer321   😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Market yields are about to head much higher
Date: 10/23/25 8:11 AM
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People do not want to buy as much US debt.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-says-worl...

Ray Dalio says the world is running out of interest in buying U.S. debt—but America is unable to cut back its spending


That was with Fortune magazine—same thing by Dalio on NPR this morning.

Dalio said on NPR that there are two promises to the American public: Your taxes won't go higher, and we won't stop the social spending.

The social spending helps the US economy. The low taxes hurt the American economy, according to me. But it is more than according to me.
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Author: UpNorthJoe   😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Market yields are about to head much higher
Date: 10/23/25 8:54 AM
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I took a pass on the 5 year TIP that is being offered.

The Gov is offering a 1.125% above inflation. The current regime
will be in office for over 3 of those 5 years, and I have little
confidence that they will not cook the books on inflation stats.

The POTUS already publicly states that ALL PRICES have come down, that
there is NO INFLATION ( except for beef, he uses the skyrocketing price
of beef to justify bailing out Argentina ). My eyes, and wallet
tell me a very different story than the one this administration
is putting out.

I have a percentage of retirement funds in "safe" fixed income.
Just gonna have to live with lower yields, there is no escape that
I can see.

Oh well, return of principal instead of return on principal
will be the theme for now. Inflation will eat away at that
purchasing power, no doubt about it.
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Author: UpNorthJoe   😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Market yields are about to head much higher
Date: 10/23/25 9:35 AM
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Weird.
FIDO shows the current 5 year TIP coupon offering a 1.125% yield.
Schwab shows the current 5 year TIP coupon offering a 1.625% yield.

Kind of a big difference in percentage terms.
Wonder why the difference.
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Author: OrmontUS   😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Market yields are about to head much higher
Date: 10/23/25 10:14 AM
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FIDO shows the current 5 year TIP coupon offering a 1.125% yield.
Schwab shows the current 5 year TIP coupon offering a 1.625% yield.

Wonder why the difference.
________________________________

A girl's gotta do what a girl's gotta do to get ahead in this world. Ever wonder if one of the brokers is the counter-party selling you the bond? Some day, when you have nothing better to do, compare Fidelity's prices to trade foreign shares with Interactive brokers. Lat time I looked, their vig was about 15%.

"except for beef, he uses the skyrocketing price of beef to justify bailing out Argentina"
________________________________

In the case of most countries, the Administration places high tariffs to protect the profitability of US farmers. In the case of Argentina, he engineered the tariffs on China in a way that our soy been farmers lost China as a customer and all the business went to Argentina. Now he's supporting the import of cheap Argentine meat at the expense of American ranchers. His solution, I guess, is to subsidize the US farmers/ranchers at taxpayer expense.

In addition, the US (along with two other infusions of indeterminate amounts) has agreed to swap $20B USD for (nearly worthless) Argentine pesos, presumably to allow Argentina to pay-off loans previously made by Trump aligned investors (at US taxpayer expense.

I guess it's what we can expect from an administration which would apply tariffs on, say India, to punish them for buying from Russia, yet has not placed any tariffs on Russia itself.

Trump seems to deal differently with countries run by leaders of an authoritarian philosophy by supporting them from the US piggy bank.

Jeff
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