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Author: longtimebrk ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 15061 
Subject: Wonder how Warren
Date: 03/22/2023 9:07 AM
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Thinks probabilistically about China going into Taiwan while holding a wee bit of Apple.

Apple would suffer significantly as would the world.

Besides the conflict, the US would impose significant sanctions on China and of course China would respond in kind and Apple would be impacted via the sanction response.

Tim Cook says Apple is diversifying the supply chain but the vast percentage of Apple products are still made or assembled in China.

Charlie downplays the risk but he seems to have a blind spot for China given his admiration of what they have accomplished.

US restrictions via ASML preventing advanced lithography equipment being shipped to China feels like the US restricting oil to Japan in the 30s.







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Author: Blackswanny   😊 😞
Number: of 15061 
Subject: Re: Wonder how Warren
Date: 03/22/2023 9:45 AM
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I've been looking at this, people have been talking about India for significant production rollout but this is a fantasy and it'd take 10 years to make any significant dent. Big risk IMO. He needs to speak to Charlie, perhaps not! 🤭
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Author: rogermunibond   😊 😞
Number: of 15061 
Subject: Re: Wonder how Warren
Date: 03/22/2023 3:02 PM
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Most of the US foreign policy, defence establishment is misjudging this imo.

Why do you think the risk of China invading Taiwan is high?

I think this piece in FA sums it up quite nicely. The US is in something of a moral panic over China/CPC.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/taiwan-chines...
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Author: longtimebrk ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 15061 
Subject: Re: Wonder how Warren
Date: 03/22/2023 3:50 PM
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good article. thanks for posting
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