After looking at FC's spreadsheet ..... I echo the comment made previously....

This is basically a new avatar of Jim's DBE ie Dying Bullish Euphoria. IIRC Zee had done some work around optimization of the 99-day lookback ( which Jim basically picked due to its sorta simplicity it conjures - no high for a 100 days) - and it landed somewhere around the 110-120 marks - which is basically around 6 months - Jim's is 5.

The ONLY difference that Tpoto's method requires is an additional condition

A new 6 month low also ( if you do weekly for a few running weeks for the H-L count to go negative) or monthly for 2 months.

So the count of cases that would differ - Note - Tpoto's is almost PERFECT SUBSET of DBE ( ie if DBE then guaranteed trigger)

SELL SIDE
(a) Cases where the index just meanders around for 100 days without going anywhere - but not reaching a 6 monthly low either
(b) OR Where the index is reaching a 6 month low - but the H-L count never goes Negative - ie the Index had a very good run in exactly 6 months prior - so for every New Low day - there's a New High day in the lookback. If the DBE count exceeds 100 here also - it would trigger DBE but not this signal.

BUY SIDE
Is same really - a new DBE for a few days should put the h-L in positive territory.

So the results of this Strategy should closely mimic DBE for all practical purposes if one matches up the lookback criteria.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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