No. of Recommendations: 9
"My instinct is that if BYD can make products of high quality and have a significant cost advantage due to deserved skill and work, nothing can stop them from being successful. Would love to hear your thoughts..."
I recently re-read the Iliad and the Odyssey and was struck by how often the fates of skilled warriors were determined by the Gods. Lightning bolts, storms, monsters - all kinds of crazy things. In this metaphor, the US, Chinese, Russian, EU, Indian, etc. governments are the Gods, and I think they can stop BYD from being successful (in the way you mean) very easily if they want to. Whether that will happen is anyone's guess; the Gods are fickle.
IMHO the long-term antagonism between the US and China is not likely to go away any time soon, at least not from the US perspective. Charlie would explain it in terms of common misjudgments that people make, expressed in politics rather than finance, but basically the same thing. Or call it good, old-fashioned competition. Either way, a strong argument can be made that the current antagonism between the US and China is not just "immediate bad weather," but a condition that will persist indefinitely (30-50 years) unless and until the Gods decide otherwise. India is a wild card with high ambitions and a very different approach than anyone else. This has implications for AAPL and BABA as well, as has been discussed here many times. I don't say you are wrong, but I don't think it is by any means a slam dunk.
abromber
