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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: elann 🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
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Number: of 3320 
Subject: Arezi Ratio for Feb 24
Date: 02/21/2025 7:59 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 13
*                         2/3      2/10     2/17     2/24/25
S&P 500 Index 6040.53 6025.99 6114.63 6013.13
Trailing 12 month PE 28.15 28.22 28.41 27.82
Trail Earnings yield 3.55% 3.54% 3.52% 3.59%
Forward 12 month PE 23.79 23.77 23.93 23.45
Fwd Earnings Yield 4.20% 4.21% 4.18% 4.26%
90 day tbill yield 4.31 4.35 4.34 4.32
10 year tbond yield 4.58% 4.49% 4.47% 4.42%
Arezi Ratio 1.21 1.23 1.23 1.20
Fed Ratio 1.09 1.07 1.07 1.04


The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 60%
stocks, 40% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 50%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 84%.

Elan
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