Mortgages more closely track the 10 year (basically the same pool of investor dollars), which is influenced indirectly by short term rates which the Fed just raised.

Hmmm, the word "indirectly" is doing a whole lot of heavy lifting there. I'd say somewhere between "tenuous" and "notional". The Fed can do something about the short term rates, but the market determines the long term rates. Outside of wartime financial repression, of course, which might soon be a subject investors have to bone up on.

True, there are some textbook reasons to think that the long term rate is just the average of a lot of future short term rates, but the two are barely on speaking terms in the real world. There are good reasons for them to be negatively correlated. (hawkish short term stance to crush inflation, preserving the belief in future purchasing power of nominal long bond principal, supporting their prices and dampening long yields)

I can't think of anything that would cause long yields to soar faster than the Fed accommodating the US president's desire to have short term rates cut to 1%. As one wag pointed out, the root of the word "credit" is credere, the Latin word for "to trust". No trusty, no lendy.

Jim