No. of Recommendations: 26
I use a few different valuation metrics. Book value, "two and a half column" value, with and without a few cyclical adjustments, blah blah blah. Looking at the historical ratios of price to metric on each, you get a guess of where the historically "likely" price might be.
Adding in estimates of typical annual real value growth per share and US inflation in the next year, you can get an idea of where the nominal share price might be expected to land in a year. I assumed monetary inflation of 3.1% and observable growth in value per share of inflation + 7.5%.
Long story short, the sundry models suggest one might expect a price in the range of $425 per B share, plus or minus $15 depending on the model, if growth is typical and ending valuations are typical of the post-credit-crunch era. With today's price around $452 per B share, we may still be within a zone of reasonableness, but not in a zone that a particularly good year for the stock price seems likely.
Obviously stock prices can do anything, so that's no more accurate than a one month weather forecast. But it's reasonably likely that you'll see a better than average year starting from better than average valuations levels...and vice versa. When you hear hoof beats, expect horses, not zebras.
Jim
