Post New

*                         1/6      1/13     1/20     1/27/25
S&P 500 Index             5942.47  5827.04  5996.66  6101.24
Trailing 12 month PE      28.40    27.72    28.45    28.61
Trail Earnings yield      3.52%    3.61%    3.51%    3.50%
Forward 12 month PE       23.78    23.17    23.78    24.06
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.20%    4.32%    4.21%    4.16%
90 day tbill yield        4.34     4.36     4.34     4.35
10 year tbond yield       4.60%    4.77%    4.61%    4.63%
Arezi Ratio               1.23     1.21     1.23     1.24
Fed Ratio                 1.09     1.11     1.10     1.11

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 58%
stocks, 42% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 48%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 83%.

Elan

Post New

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.