When reading posts, there are yellow stars against the names of the most respected Shrewds. The number of points in the star, starting at 3, represents the Shrewd'm-Star rating. This number is the average recommendation that the author received over the last 12 months.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 7
Today the Florida Supreme Court affirmed that DeSantis’ 6 week abortion ban can go into effect, and at the same time approved a referendum to (basically) strike it on the November ballot.
Assuming trends continue as they have (without exception) a referendum on abortion brings out the Democratic vote
in droves (also in Chevys and Mazdas) and has led to results that might be otherwise surprising, if not for the “choice” vote.
Florida Supreme Court allows one of nation’s strictest abortion bans to take effect
The high court simultaneously ruled that a referendum enshrining abortion rights can go on the November ballot Florida’s conservative Supreme Court ruled Monday that the state’s constitution
does not protect abortion rights, allowing one of the country’s strictest and most
far-reaching abortion bans to take effect in 30 days.
But in a separate decision, the high court also ruled that an amendment to enshrine
abortion rights in the state’s constitution can go on the November ballot, for a vote
that could potentially undo the new strict abortion ban in a matter of months.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/04/01/a...
No. of Recommendations: 0
Assuming trends continue as they have (without exception) a referendum on abortion brings out the Democratic vote in droves (also in Chevys and Mazdas) and has led to results that might be otherwise surprising, if not for the “choice” vote.A good percentage of Floria's population is made up of “older folks”.
You know, grandmas and grandpas who dearly love their grandchildren.
Methinks the thought of killing a child in the womb will most certainly
be an abomination to this age group and probably would be against abortion rights.
Just saying....
“The proportion of Florida’s population that is 60 and
older is growing more rapidly than other components
of the population. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates
that 32.5 percent of Florida’s population will be 60 and
older by the year 2030, an increase of 34 percent from”
2012.
https://acl.gov/sites/default/files/programs/2016-...Recent trend vote is mostly Republican
https://www.270towin.com/states/florida
No. of Recommendations: 4
Methinks the thought of killing a child in the womb will most certainly be an abomination to this age group and probably would be against abortion rights.Rather than guess, you could just look it up. Abortion is a subject that frequently gets polled. The proposed amendment protecting abortion rights polls at 60-40 in favor:
https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/poll-over-60-of-...You're right that older people generally are less supportive of abortion rights, and Florida is pretty old (though we're not the oldest state any more)....but the electorate overall is generally in favor of protecting the ability to obtain an abortion. So this is not great news for Trump, though I suspect Biden will still lose the state.
No. of Recommendations: 4
You're right that older people generally are less supportive of abortion rights, and Florida is pretty old (though we're not the oldest state any more)....but the electorate overall is generally in favor of protecting the ability to obtain an abortion. So this is not great news for Trump, though I suspect Biden will still lose the state.
An alternate theory?
A huge portion of current Floridians are not native Floridians, they moved to Florida from other states. Stereotypically, one of the biggest sources of new older Florida residents are snowbirds fleeing the cold winters in northern states that tend to be more liberal. At this point, elderly Florida voters in their 70s to 90s were in their 20s to 40s when abortion was first legalized via Roe v Wade. Could it be possible this generation of Floridians in their 70s to 90s are disgusted by seeing something that was important to them fify years ago arbitrarily tossed out by a Supreme Court that made up rationalizations for doing so out of thin air?
This might just be me desperately searching for silver linings but this dynamic could play itself out in several areas:
* people who fought for abortion rights in the 1960s and 1970s
* retired police who see a candidate for President promising to pardon people who rioted on DC police
* retired military who see a candidate for President who thinks wounded vets are suckers
* retired military who see a candidate for President undermining support for NATO and a world order they fought to protect
WTH
No. of Recommendations: 1
albaby1: I suspect Biden will still lose the state...
A little too soon for predictions but it should be pointed out that Florida voters also will have a chance to weigh in on an issue the state’s Republican-led Legislature has rejected for years and that just may bring out younger voters: the legalization of recreational marijuana use.
No. of Recommendations: 3
A little too soon for predictions but it should be pointed out that Florida voters also will have a chance to weigh in on an issue the state’s Republican-led Legislature has rejected for years and that just may bring out younger voters: the legalization of recreational marijuana use.
Perhaps. But Trump won Florida in 2020 by about 3.5%, which is a pretty big margin and eight points better than his national numbers. We've got a mostly moribund state Democratic party, and the state has been trending more Republican for decades now. While the MJ and abortion initiatives may bring more Democrats to the polls, it's hard to see that completely overcoming those larger factors. Certainly the Biden campaign will start by making a play for Florida, in case there's any weakness or weird Kennedy impacts that change that dynamic. But I expect that by early October, we'll be triaged in favor of devoting campaign resources to places that are more likely to be the tipping point state.
What will be more interesting is whether Mucuarsel-Powell at all competitive against Rick Scott in the Senate race. Scott's not the most charismatic or dynamic leader, but he has the advantage of incumbency and a full statewide political operation. If the Senate race is close, and nationwide Democrats pour money into it all the way to the end, the Biden campaign might take a flyer on really competing for the state. If that's the case, and the Presidential race is at all close, Biden's team might stay through to the end.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I have no beef with Florida.
Those fine communities in what might be a borderline pornographic moment in politics.... in South Florida decided to vote for my man Pat Buchanan in 2000, and that election turned out ok.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Couple things: How he performed vis a vis the national numbers isn’t really relevant, I don’t think, But the 3.5% margin is. Then again, that doesn’t seem so huge give the confluence of things that will be happening in this election.
We know that putting the abortion question on the ballot is bringing out Democrats in every election, and especially in Red States, and causing more split voting than is usual. That’s not a perfect metric because off-year elections don’t tend to bring out as many voters in the first place, but there is *clearly* a bump there.
Especially because Trump is advocating a “national policy”, and especially because it is his three picks who overturned Roe in the first place, I suspect this issue will work against him, and strongly. There is no question that he is able to turn out his hardcore fans, and that Biden has inflation working against him, but I suspect the abortion question is potent, particularly among younger voters who have historically not turned out in such numbers as their older peers.
It is a “female” question, and women are already skeptical of Trump, so I have hope.
Add to that the marijuana question which probably means more to younger men and women, and I’m guessing that “younger” numbers will be higher than usual, probably higher than the last election.
Finally, I would opine that the twin issues may *seem* to put Florida in play, which will be another distraction for the GOP on what should have been a safe state. Of course that cuts both ways, Biden might not have devoted so many resources to Florida if it seemed unworthwhile, but in this case I see a potential pickup.
I don’t know Florida politics, but it’s beyond imagining that Rubio doesn’t cruise to victory. Incumbency almost always wins (which is why I support limits. I know you don’t, but as the saying goes you’ll see it my way eventually because you’re smart and I’m right.)
No. of Recommendations: 3
Couple things: How he performed vis a vis the national numbers isn’t really relevant, I don’t think, But the 3.5% margin is. Then again, that doesn’t seem so huge give the confluence of things that will be happening in this election.
The reason his performance versus the national numbers is relevant is because campaigns have to allocate scarce resources, and the Presidential campaigns are trying to get to 270 electoral votes. So they'll try to prioritize the states that are more vulnerable than typical for their opponent. Florida's a state where Trump did about 8 points better than his national average, which means it's a much Trumpier-than-typical state, so it shouldn't be as much of a priority for Biden.
IOW, if Florida is in play then it means that Biden's doing very well in WI, MI, PA, AZ, and a host of other states that are closer than Florida - and Biden's probably better off putting resources into those states to make sure he wins rather than trying to chase a state with a greater pro-Trump lean.
It is a “female” question, and women are already skeptical of Trump, so I have hope.
Add to that the marijuana question which probably means more to younger men and women, and I’m guessing that “younger” numbers will be higher than usual, probably higher than the last election.
Certainly it helps - Trump is certainly worse off with those issues on the ballot than not. But I don't think it's enough. If marijuana gets 20% more 18-29 year-olds to vote in the next election than 2020 (which would be insanely high, no pun intended), that would mean another 300K votes...but if the split the same 60/40 Biden/Trump ratio as last time, that's only an extra 60K votes for Biden (because we're a fairly older state). In a state he lost by almost 400K votes. And as for women, there's already a pretty decent-sized gender gap in turnout rates and we already skew very heavily female - in 2020, the Florida electorate was already 55/44 female to male. Again, not a good thing for Trump that abortion is on the ballot.
I don’t know Florida politics, but it’s beyond imagining that Rubio doesn’t cruise to victory. Incumbency almost always wins (which is why I support limits. I know you don’t, but as the saying goes you’ll see it my way eventually because you’re smart and I’m right.)
This cycle is Scott, not Rubio - and Scott's the weaker candidate. I think he's the heavy favorite to win - I just think that if there's a tilt from the amendment ballot items, Scott's more vulnerable to lose the state than Trump. So that might keep resources in the state at the outset, if Scott's running close, which might draw Biden to take more of a flier.
Also, term limits bad.
No. of Recommendations: 1
A good percentage of Floria's population is made up of “older folks”.In 2005, it was estimated that 40% of women over 18 have had an abortion.
https://www.newsweek.com/about-40-percent-american...19 years later in 2024, I think many of these women would be well over 70(I am not sure if over 70 is considered older folk!). Time will tell how the vote goes.
Aussi
