No. of Recommendations: 20
Sorry, but I don't see that happening here. Not because Trump has found a backbone
Well Donald could just declare victory and leave, but that wouldn’t change things. He is no longer in charge of this war. You know who is? Iran. With the closing of the Hormuz Strait they have put their finger on the artery of the world by essentially closing off 20% of the world oil supply and they know it.
Reitman asked if this doesn’t hurt their economy as well: of course it does. Then again, bombs raining down out of the sky all over the country hurt the economy too, and everyone in the country knows where they’re coming from - so it’s all too easy to blame all this on The Great Satan (that us, as in US) aided and complicit with the Little Satan (Israel.) That plays wonderfully politically if you’re an Ayatollah, and if you’re a religious fanatic (Group 1) or the actual powermongers, the IRGC (Group 2), so a little short term pain is well worth it.
Meanwhile, Donald cannot just “walk away” with the Strait closed. It requires not just “military presence”, but increased military presence from what is there today. Already 16 ships have been attacked, and they are frighteningly vulnerable to drones which can be launched at remove at these juicy targets. Oh, and mines.
(Students of the map may notice that while the Strait of Hormuz is the most obvious choke point, the Persian Gulf borders Iran all the way up and down on one side, while the other is home to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman, all of whom depend on that waterway for their exports.) Iran has chosen to weaponize this economic lifeline, and there’s not a lot the US can do about it. We have a couple of “strike forces” in and a few other assets “nearby” (that’s maybe 20-30 ships? not all of which are combat equipped), but not nearly enough to provide enough cover to make the trip worthwhile for Maersk, Lloyd’s, and the others who really make the decisions.
In wartime if you have a button, you press it. I think Iran has a button.
Meanwhile, Israel is expanding the war elsewhere, Bibi is in a re-election year and the war is popular there, so why would he stand down? We have other people at the controls, and Donald “has a feeling”. Swell.
