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Several old friends asked me to explain what is going on with the DJT , the IPO, and what to expect next, so I'm sharing my reply. " This is what is going to happen. The Board of Directors of DJT the parent public company is going to put out a press release to read as follows. The BODs has unanimously agreed to amend the lock up provision on Mr Trumps shares in the company. As a result 20 million of Mr Trumps shares will now be eligible to be used as collateral for loans or the shares can be sold in the public market free of restriction, immediately. Mr Trump has represented to the Board that at this time, he has no plans to request additional changes to his lock up agreement. That's what the company should do at the close of business today. The stock has traded heavy volume and the additional Trump shares added to the float would help to make the stock more liquid and trade in a more orderly fashion. If Trump sells 10 million shares next week he would net a cool 500 million round numbers. You can bet the honorable Liz Warren, Bernie Sanders, Raskin , and the usual suspects etc , have been up all night trying to push the SEC to prevent this obvious move. Can they stop Trump from scoring large , stay tuned? Hope that explains it bud. 🍿

The BODs has unanimously agreed to amend the lock up provision on Mr Trumps shares in the company. As a result 20 million of Mr Trumps shares will now be eligible to be used as collateral for loans or the shares can be sold in the public market free of restriction, immediately. Mr Trump has represented to the Board that at this time, he has no plans to request additional changes to his lock up agreement. That's what the company should do at the close of business today. The stock has traded heavy volume and the additional Trump shares added to the float would help to make the stock more liquid and trade in a more orderly fashion. If Trump sells 10 million shares next week he would net a cool 500 million round numbers.

That's certainly a possibility....but I don't think it's an especially likely one.

Trump benefits enormously from a high DJT stock price. Estimates of his personal wealth are much higher, based on his ownership of about 60% of the DJT shares.

But his total stake is about 80 million shares. Ending the lockup on a quarter of those shares - and actually selling more than 10% of his shares - is pretty likely to tank the share price. Almost all of the value of DJT is based on Trump's active and continued involvement with the service, and if he starts cashing out early it's going to be a huge damper on enthusiasm for the stock.

At this point, Trump benefits enormously from the perception that his stake in DJT is exceedingly valuable. In reality, while the paper value of his stake is very high, he can't really sell it - it's only valuable as long as he actually owns it. Which reduces the likelihood that he'll sell it in the near term.

" Trump benefits enormously from a high DJT stock price. Estimates of his personal wealth are much higher, based on his ownership of about 60% of the DJT shares." Can he spend, estimates, of his net worth ? Does he benefit if he doesn't increase the float and the stock drops from 80 to 20 ? Have you been an officer of a public company that has dropped 75 % ? It's no fun bud.

Can he spend, estimates, of his net worth ? Does he benefit if he doesn't increase the float and the stock drops from 80 to 20 ?

It doesn't matter. Trump knows that his share of DJT isn't really worth $4 billion. He can't actually sell it for that amount. DJT is a meme stock right now, and it only has value because Trump owns a majority share - and is therefore presumably 100% committed to it.

The question for Trump is how to maximize the benefit for himself. Increasing the float doesn't have any benefit to him - the stock's got plenty of volume, and generally increasing the float doesn't increase the share price. Selling shares would convert the "estimate" benefit to actual dollars, but there's a limit on how much he could actually liquidate without tanking the stock now. Meanwhile, though, he benefits politically by being provably a multi-billionaire - at least on paper.

What Trump should do is have DJT engage in the most profitable thing a meme stock can do. Sell more shares. People want to buy shares in a company that has less than $20 million per year in average revenue (and nothing but losses) at a valuation of close to $10 billion. The smart thing would be to have a secondary offering in a few months. Sell another 20-30 million in shares - small enough so that Trump still has majority control, but enough to make a ton of money off of gullible Trump fans and/or people seeking to curry favor with the candidate. That guarantees Trump a several hundred million dollar payout at the end of wherever this goes, without tanking the price any more than would happen 'organically.'

Yep, they can do a secondary as well, but so close to the IPO, would be unusual, to say the least. Depending on who trump knows in the business, a firm or two can be short 6/8 million shares by Monday morning and buy his stock to cover. Easy victory for Trump again.

Yep, they can do a secondary as well, but so close to the IPO, would be unusual, to say the least.

Everything about the stock is already unusual. It's valued at more than 1,000x annual revenue. Which is already bonkers.

It doesn't matter whether Trump divests of 6-8 million shares through open market sales or selling to a private party that wants to use the shares to cover a short. The point is that if Trump starts selling off his stake, it will cause the share price to fall precipitously. Right now, Trump derives an enormous benefit from having a multi-billion paper valuation of his DJT holdings. It's probably not in his best interest to disturb that just to take a few hundred million off the table.

Again, having a secondary offering accomplishes the same goal. It converts shares to hard cash. Though the cash is held by the company instead of DJT, it backstops the value of the company, which would allow him to actually realize a lot of the value of his shares. Right now, Trump probably couldn't get much of a loan against his stake - because a lender would know that the shares would become nearly worthless if they foreclosed. But if DJT had a billion in cash, then Trump's shares are worth $600 million as collateral - because now there's real money in the company to backstop the shares.

IF, a few market makers are short in anticipation of his sales, it wouldn't hurt the stock. IF you lived with someone who watches the VIEW and msnbc you hear enough ignorant nonsense to make you laugh all day. Once trump clears 500 million the usual idiots will stop telling my gfriend trump is broke or he can't raise the 175 million. What a country.

IF, a few market makers are short in anticipation of his sales, it wouldn't hurt the stock.

Again, it's not the short sales that would hurt the stock price. It's that if Trump sold 10% of his stake in the company, it would hurt the stock price. Regardless of whether he sell them on the open market or privately to a "few market makers," he still needs to disclose the sales. It's typically not great for the stock price when insiders start unloading generally; for a stock like DJT, where the entire value of the company derives from Trump's ownership and involvement in it, it would be far more significant. How he structures the sales (open market vs. market makers) doesn't affect that.

How long before SDNY or Alvin Bragg trump up (<--- see what I did there) some BS charges with respect to Truth Social?

I'm starting to come around to the idea that both the democrats and the GOP want to throw this election.

I've never shorted a stock in my life, but I'm almost tempted here. 1000x annual revenue? That is totally insane. And I would say that about any company, not just DJT. Especially a company that is on the cutting edge of...nothing. At least TSLA (just as an example) was innovating and projecting the needs of people in the future (or trying to), and planning to satisfy those needs. QS is another trying to do that (and the jury is still out on whether they will succeed). DJT is doing none of that, as near as I can tell.

there are meme-players on both sides, some have obviously gotten lucky and already cashed in.
personally, i feel just as lucky my brokerage greatly restricts trading on this type of garbage.

there is no logical investment strategy here, given volatility and fees.

odds are stacked with fully controlling insiders with basically zero cost long positions. internal squabbles among their own stakes are minor drama. insiders have shown they WILL come together in order to improve odds of monetizing (e.g., as in lawsuits paused during recent SPAC vote). fleecing the retail investor is the primary source for monetization, as the business is worthless in terms of ever getting ahead of its cumulative cost of capital by profits sent to retail shareholders.

now exactly how insiders will grift is the entertaining mystery. trump obviously wants to loosen just his own lockup , and not others. can he drive it mostly on his own?
(and so what if don has to share: even if don nets $2/ share, that is still $2 more than what he put in, $2 more than intrinsic value, and probably more single-deal profit than he has ever made.)

I doubt you can borrow the stock to short. We all know the long term prospects.

Never short stocks, buy puts instead.

I've never shorted a stock in my life, but I'm almost tempted here. 1000x annual revenue? That is totally insane.

Not investment advice, but I don't think the above captures everything about the stock. DJT is a vehicle for monetizing interest in Donald Trump, and it is very much on the cutting edge of that business.

First off, meme stocks can stay 'meme-y' for a very long time. It doesn't matter what their fundamentals are. The share price is divorced from fundamentals. A short position is just a bet that retail fans of the stock will lose interest in the stock soon enough that you can cover the transaction costs of maintaining the short position and not get squeezed out from period spikes. For meme stocks like GME and AMC, a lot of people lost that bet - even though they were ultimately right about how little the stock was actually "worth" based on fundamentals.

Second, as I mentioned in the other thread, DJT is an outstanding mechanism for people to legally give money to Trump in exchange for ostensible services that cost him nothing to provide. That becomes a very valuable and useful product if Trump gets elected President. We'd expect ad buys for Truth Social to skyrocket, even if Trump didn't do anything to push the service. And I think there's a decent chance that he pushes people to use the service. Truth Social is utterly useless as a commercial venture today, but if it becomes a path to convey money to the President where 60% of your spend drops into his pocket (unless hotels or golf venues), it becomes an incredibly valuable tool for a lot of potential users.

I doubt you can borrow the stock to short. We all know the long term prospects.

Long term prospects don't prevent you from selling a stock short. Remember, this isn't actually an IPO, but a reverse merger into an already-traded SPAC. It usually takes some time after an IPO for shares to be available for short (and for options trading to spin up), but since DWAC was trading for years there was a sizable short interest in the company even before the merger closed.

https://investorplace.com/2024/03/trump-media-pop-...

That becomes a very valuable and useful product if Trump gets elected President.

At this point, there is perhaps no other course of action more important for Congress to pursue than obtaining clarification on EXACTLY how the emoluments clause WOULD be interpreted in court and how it SHOULD be interpreted in court to then enact legislation to tighten its actual enforcement like a noose around the neck of ANY future President.

Given recent arguments about the power of a President and the "rights" of a President versus the rights of the larger population, it seems clear anyone who attempted to pursue criminal charges for violations of the Imoluments Clause would be challenged in court that

a) Congress never enacted enabling legistlation for its enforcement so it is null and void
b) enforcing the Emoluments clause would violate a President's right to privacy by forcing more disclosure of their "personal" finances
c) enforcing the Emoluments clause would unfairly burden a rich President by forcing them to forego earnings from their hard-earned portfolio accumulated over years of "hard work"

Trump Administration I and his current actions as he tries to regain the Presidency are textbook examples of how current interpretations and enforcement of that language are fundamentally flawed and toothless. It isn't enough to require a President to put their financial assets in a "blind trust." A President who is rich enough would have assets so large it would be impossible to manage them in a "blind" way that wouldn't provide traceability to their current performance. That's all that's required to establish the incentive chain between those wanting influence and a corrupt President. Even if a President isn't currently "controlling" his stake in company XYZ, if individuals know he holds a $50,000,000 position in that stock or a $5 billion dollar position, that's enough for someone to manipulate the stock and aid the President... In exchange for something only the President and the external party to see.

To provide proper separation between a sitting President and the worldwide roster of uber-billionaires willing to buy a democracy, the only way to isolate a President in this modern era of corruption is to literally require them to DIVEST all assets into cash and hold nothing but cash until they leave office. Is that too much of a price to pay for a wealthy would-be President? Then tough, you aren't focused enough on serving the public. The public can look elsewhere for leadership.


WTH

...but enough to make a ton of money off of gullible Trump fans and/or people seeking to curry favor with the candidate.

Trump is probably too dumb to figure this out, but he surely has advisors who can clue him in.

I've never bought an option, either. But I think you're probably correct.

I read about a strategy several years ago...let's see if I can remember...if you want to own a stock, you can effectively put a limit order in the form of shorting the put. You get the commission, and if it hits your buy-point, you surrender your money and take possession of the stock. If it doesn't, you pocket the commission and don't get the stock. The difference between that and a limit order is just the commission. If I'm remembering correctly. But I never did it.

So, basically, it's a way to launder bribe money.

As WTH said, Congress needs to address something like this via legislation so that can never happen again.

Not investment advice, but I wouldn't touch that with a 10' pole. I don't do meme stocks either.

I occasionally do speculative stocks (like QS...I'm long QS). But generally, no. I do some tech (like MCHP), and companies like COST and VISA. Pretty boring, but reliable growers. QS tech intrigues me, and if they are able to make it work reliably, and make it manufacturable, they are going to clean up. If not, my investment in them won't be worth squat. I went in with my eyes wide open.

Yep, they can do a secondary as well, but so close to the IPO, would be unusual, to say the least. Depending on who trump knows in the business, a firm or two can be short 6/8 million shares by Monday morning and buy his stock to cover. Easy victory for Trump again.

You seem to be saying that although Trump can't sell on the open market under the lockup, but he can make a private sale? Would he still need BOD approval to do that?

“ You seem to be saying that although Trump can't sell on the open market under the lockup, but he can make a private sale? Would he still need BOD approval to do that?“ The rules may have changed in the past 25 years but technically, firms can’t get short, knowing a restricted seller is about to free up restricted stock, and use those shares to cover their short However I suppose it happens 😇😇. Djt can do a secondary consisting of say 3 million shares from the company and 3 million trump shares, via an amended lock up agreement. Cash in trumps pocket removes the anxiety of Trump needing cash to pay the fines, judgments, attorney fees etc he faces.

AN ETF.


As you Club 401K'ers would say "one that tracks......"


Yeah, one that tracks political violence in your - uh - country.

You can bet on number of incidents perhaps. Maybe cover mid terms and the Presidential elections.

It's not violent enough yet but - - believe me the way you people are going, it will be.

Not investment advice, but I wouldn't touch that with a 10' pole. I don't do meme stocks either.

BTW, here's what I would do if I was in charge of DJT:

1) Do a shelf offering of about 15 million shares to bring in just under a billion dollars;
2) Find a media company (TMTG is technically a media company itself) for acquisition that's around that size. Hey, there's one - Sinclair Broadcasting Group, with a market cap of about $850 million and a nice conservative bent.
3) Do a nice little merger, with a little bit of leverage to offer a premium to market, coupled with some DJT pressure on the Smith family to get them to sell.
4) Now my fake little "media company" is a real media company, with $3 billion in revenues and $200 million in earnings. A nice synergistic fit to Truth Social, and owning two hundred TV stations is a nice bonus for a politician. Very Berlusconi.

4) Now my fake little "media company" is a real media company, with $3 billion in revenues and $200 million in earnings. A nice synergistic fit to Truth Social, and owning two hundred TV stations is a nice bonus for a politician. Very Berlusconi."" albaby, good morning, first I'll stipulate that I don't believe trump or biden should be on the ballot. If that's the match up from the duopoly of self dealing grifters, I'll vote third party or write in Micky Mouse. Longer term, your plan is the right move, however short term, I'm sure we would agree the vast majority of DJT longs are trumpers ,no ? Therefore, the no brainer move is to provide trump with 250 million liquid cash to meet his needs so that GOP donors don't think their contributions are going to pay trumps fines and legal fees. He owns about 1/2 of DJT anyway, first, they should cure his personal financial liquidity needs. Let's see what happens next week.

4) Now my fake little "media company" is a real media company, with $3 billion in revenues and $200 million in earnings. A nice synergistic fit to Truth Social, and owning two hundred TV stations is a nice bonus for a politician. Very Berlusconi."" albaby, good morning, first I'll stipulate that I don't believe trump or biden should be on the ballot. If that's the match up from the duopoly of self dealing grifters, I'll vote third party or write in Micky Mouse. Longer term, your plan is the right move, however short term, I'm sure we would agree the vast majority of DJT longs are trumpers ,no ? Therefore, the no brainer move is to provide trump with 250 million liquid cash to meet his needs so that GOP donors don't think their contributions are going to pay trumps fines and legal fees. He owns about 1/2 of DJT anyway, first, they should cure his personal financial liquidity needs. Let's see what happens next week. - hclv

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Suggestion, your posts would be more readable if you separated your words from the words of the OP you are responding to, for example,

Now my fake little "media company" is a real media company, with $3 billion in revenues and $200 million in earnings. A nice synergistic fit to Truth Social, and owning two hundred TV stations is a nice bonus for a politician. Very Berlusconi."" albaby,

good morning, first I'll stipulate that I don't believe trump or biden should be on the ballot. If that's the match up from the duopoly of self dealing grifters, I'll vote third party or write in Micky Mouse. Longer term, your plan is the right ...

Thank you, hc, who types with one finger !

4) Now my fake little "media company" is a real media company, with $3 billion in revenues and $200 million in earnings. A nice synergistic fit to Truth Social, and owning two hundred TV stations is a nice bonus for a politician. Very Berlusconi.

A plan worthy of Victor Orban or Vlad Putin.

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