No. of Recommendations: 7
I think that in the grand sweep of history, it's more likely to be cyclical.
Ignoring the stretch around and just after prohibition up to the war, the low stretch in pure ethanol consumption in the US for the last century or two was 1947-1961 at around 7.6 litres/year. It rose sharply for a while and was over 10 litres/year around 1973-1983. The most recent figures seem to be around 9.5 litres. A lot of the changes can be explained by changes in the shape of the population pyramid, less by changes in human nature.
So, offhand, I would consider the scale of a major lasting generational drop in consumption levels, if we see it as you suggest, to be equivalent to a fall of maybe ~20% back to the figures seen in the prior postwar low stretch. Real dollar value of consumption might fall less, as people are on average richer than they were before. My investment thesis is that the better companies might have a slowdown or one time shrinkage, but will still be formidable businesses with extremely resilient and long-lasting income streams. That requires a discerning eye on what the new volume levels might be, but those "remnants" may well deserve a strong premium in valuation.
I think this might be the case if it were just a matter of alcohol going out of fashion, like people substituting marijuana for alcohol for instance. But I don't think alcohol's fairly steep drop* in the last few years is because of marijuana, I think it is out of concern for general health. I have been impressed at how seriously people around me have taken the public health warnings about small increases in cancer risk, for instance. I personally think the cancer risk associated with what I would call moderate drinking (2-3 drinks a day) are not very impressive, and certainly nothing like the huge increases in risk from smoking, but I think people are genuinely worried about this. If I am right, the decline in drinking may not swing back as fashions change, just like I suspect that smoking will (thankfully) not bounce back.
*USA:
2023: 62% of USA adults report that they consume alcohol
2024: 58%
2025: 54%
