No. of Recommendations: 12
Jim is correct that ExxonMobil isn't talking it's book. Below is the process it uses. That output is used to plan its business going forward. Basically, it asks what has changed and how might that impact our plans? What's shown below the break is their overview of how it's developed, copied directly. It's about as objective as the data permit.
Publishing the report in all its details is just sharing information.
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The Global Outlook is ExxonMobil’s view of energy demand and supply through 2050. A foundation of our business plan, the analysis is based on a long-term assessment of:
Economic trends
Advances in technology
Consumer behavior
Climate-related public policy
How we develop the Global Outlook
We use a data-driven approach to understand potential future energy demand and supply.
Monitoring policy and technology trends
The Company monitors changes in technology, such as solar panels getting cheaper and batteries improving, as well as policy developments like the EU’s tailpipe emissions regulations and China’s 14th five-year plan.
Historical foundation and fundamentals
ExxonMobil uses the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Statistics and Balances data service and other credible third-party sources as the historical basis for the Outlook. For liquids supply, we use S&P Global Platts data. For natural gas, historical production, pipeline flows and LNG data are based on Wood Mackenzie, JODI Gas, S&P Global Platts and others. In this report, data for 2023 and earlier are considered historical; the Outlook’s modeled projections cover 2024 to 2050.
The Company compiles demographic information and models economic trends for about 100 regions around the world. Primary sources are the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and IHS. Population estimates are compiled from the U.N. and the World Bank. Economic trends (e.g., GDP) are modeled based on respected third-party views and ExxonMobil’s own analysis1.
Use of sensitivity analysis
ExxonMobil uses sensitivity analyses to provide greater perspective on how variations to its Outlook assumptions could affect projected energy supply and demand. These analyses involve assessing technology advancements and the potential impact on energy supply and demand, resulting in a range of potential low- to high-demand outcomes for certain energy sources. The projections in the sensitivity analyses do not represent the Company’s viewpoint or the likelihood of these alternatives; they can provide context to its analysis.
Modeling
The Company projects demand for services across 15 sectors covering needs for personal mobility; residential energy; production of steel, cement and chemicals; plus many others. Then it matches that demand across multiple energy sources, taking into account current use and potential evolution. It also projects liquid and natural gas supply and trade flows2.
