2. They assume that growth in O&G demand in underdeveloped countries will be offset by energy efficiencies in developed countries plus reduced O&G use in transportation. That includes not only EV’s for light transportation but even electrification of heavy trucks, airlines, and marine transport. There is no reasonable case for the latter, and declining support for the former in the USA and Europe.

You may have some valid points, but this isn’t one of them.

In 2017 global gas vehicle sales were 89 million cars. Last year the number was 69 million. That’s a 20% drop in 8 years, which is a pretty “reasonable case” that something is going on. Part of it is 11 million EVs, and other parts of it could include pandemic bounce, ride sharing apps, or other factors. Gas cars are also getting better mileage, thanks to the carrot-stick wielded over the past decade (that may go away in the US but it won’t in the rest of the world), and better mileage more than makes up for the concurrent increase in miles traveled.

No, I wouldn’t worry about airlines or marine transport in the short term, but “passenger cars” are 50% of the use, and that’s under pressure.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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