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*                         4/1      4/8      4/15     4/22/24
S&P 500 Index             5254.35  5204.34  5123.41  4967.23
Trailing 12 month PE      27.24    27.10    26.64    26.02
Trail Earnings yield      3.67%    3.69%    3.75%    3.84%
Forward 12 month PE       23.24    22.94    22.56    21.72
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.30%    4.36%    4.43%    4.60%
90 day tbill yield        5.46     5.43     5.45     5.45
10 year tbond yield       4.20%    4.39%    4.50%    4.62%
Arezi Ratio               1.49     1.47     1.45     1.42
Fed Ratio                 0.98     1.01     1.02     1.00

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 49%
stocks, 51% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 29%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 77%.

Elan

Thanks. Remember Loren Cobb? Here he is on the Arezi ratio.

http://www.aetheling.com/MI/AreziRatio.html

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