*                         3/20     3/27     4/3      4/10/23
S&P 500 Index             3916.64  3970.99  4109.31  4105.02
Trailing 12 month PE      22.74    23.07    23.88    23.82
Trail Earnings yield      4.40%    4.33%    4.19%    4.20%
Forward 12 month PE       18.96    19.11    19.73    19.75   
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.28%    5.23%    5.07%    5.06%
90 day tbill yield        4.52     4.74     4.85     4.91
10 year tbond yield       3.39%    3.38%    3.48%    3.30%
Arezi Ratio               1.03     1.09     1.16     1.17
Fed Ratio                 0.64     0.65     0.69     0.65

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 62%
stocks, 38% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 42%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 85%.

Elan

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