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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: EchotaBaaa   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/21/26 5:54 PM
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Surely they made those themselves.

NO help from China.


Google Jockey will have a link saying "oh here's an eloquent story about how free trade with China is fine"


And then parsing this and parsing that.


Good. Hopefully Iran can hold Israel accountable - on behalf of Human history one day.

Maybe that's the only way to get better behavior....


I
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/21/26 6:43 PM
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Surely they made those themselves.

NO help from China.


Good thing the JCPOA addressed their missiles that they totally weren't developing- oh, right. It didn't.

Recall who helped China with *their* rockets?
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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/21/26 6:56 PM
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Surely they made those themselves.

NO help from China.


Pretty much, yes:

Q: Why has Iran imported so few major arms in recent years?
ZH: Despite its prominence as a regional power, Iran imports very few major arms. It was formerly a much larger importer, supplied mainly by China and Russia, particularly during the 1990s.

Starting in 2006, a series of United Nations Security Council resolutions imposed an increasingly strict arms embargo on Iran. In response, Iran stepped up its own domestic production of arms, especially missiles and drones. Even after the UN embargo expired in 2020, Iran has received relatively few major arms, presumably because it has achieved a high level of self-sufficiency in the systems it assesses that it needs and perhaps due to a lack of trust in potential suppliers. The UN restrictions were reinstated in 2025.


https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgroun...

As has been discussed with the nuclear program, you can't blow up knowledge with a bomb. And missile technology, while still complex, is still simpler than nuclear weapons. Iran has been largely self-sufficient in making its own missiles for quite some time.

Which is why blowing up their missiles (or inducing them to fire them at targets), and even blowing up some of their missile producing resources, doesn't increase our security in any material fashion. They'll be able to replenish those stocks fairly quickly. Especially since we don't seem interested in squeezing their oil exports, and instead are not only permitting them to pass unobstructed through the Gulf, but we're even removing sanctions....which will let them fetch an even higher price. They should have little trouble rebuilding their missile resources within a year or so, if not sooner.
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Author: EchotaBaaa   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/21/26 8:17 PM
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This is little about 'our security'

This is our Israeli masters.

And, our Chinese masters who keep supplying and helping our enemies.

C;mon, where's the Google Jockey pounding in favor or Iran getting WTO, PNTR -- just like China did?

The Links "everything has an explanation" caucus --- is failing.

I wish American soldiers would be out of this.

Then I could say "Go Iran"/

On the meantime, *gasp8 The Google Jockeys passed a law against NVDA chips going to china and now they find out junior was sneaking porn out of the home and giving it to China.

LOL, clueless people.

The sole good thing is we one day get economically and politically drained----and the future ruling class tells Israel to suck an egg.

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Author: EchotaBaaa   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/21/26 8:19 PM
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Dont remember -- but Bill Richardson, Los Alamos, Bill Clinton, Charlie Trie, Johnny Huang come to mind.

That's back when Club 401K, NeoCons, and the Google Jockey "links explain it all away" types were showering China with garlands.

I'm happy to have been with the lone wolves back then.
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Author: Steve203 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/21/26 10:18 PM
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and now they find out junior was sneaking porn out of the home and giving it to China.

That's back when Club 401K, NeoCons, and the Google Jockey "links explain it all away" types were showering China with garlands.


If Lenin didn't say it, he should have. The "JCs" have certainly proven him right.

words to the effect "when it comes time to hang all the capitalists, they will sell us the rope"

Steve
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 1:45 PM
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Which is why blowing up their missiles (or inducing them to fire them at targets), and even blowing up some of their missile producing resources, doesn't increase our security in any material fashion. They'll be able to replenish those stocks fairly quickly. Especially since we don't seem interested in squeezing their oil exports, and instead are not only permitting them to pass unobstructed through the Gulf, but we're even removing sanctions....which will let them fetch an even higher price. They should have little trouble rebuilding their missile resources within a year or so, if not sooner.

Let’s give Iran ten more pallets of cash and lift all sanctions. Or better yet, just surrender altogether.
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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 2:35 PM
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Let’s give Iran ten more pallets of cash and lift all sanctions. Or better yet, just surrender altogether.

The benefits or detriments of either of those options have nothing to do with whether Iran's missiles are made domestically. Which they are.

Nor do they affect whether it is possible to use bombing to prevent Iran from having a significant ballistic missile capability over anything but the very shortest term (if at all). Which we cannot. Iran produces their own drones and ballistic missile capabilities. If you blow up their missiles and launchers, they can build more. If you blow up their factories, they can rebuild the factories. You can't use bombing to stop them from being able to have those things. They have a fairly sizable industrial and heavy manufacturing base. It's not as advanced as an OECD nation, of course - but they are perfectly capable of building their own missiles and missile factories.

Just because you find unappealing or unworkable the alternatives of trying to induce them to voluntarily disarm or giving up on trying to disarm them doesn't mean that the "bomb them from afar" option would work, either. It may very well be that none of those options work. Criticizing the former is not an argument that the current operation will have any material impact on Iran's ballistic missile threat profile within a year or so after the bombs stop falling.

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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 3:15 PM
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The benefits or detriments of either of those options have nothing to do with whether Iran's missiles are made domestically. Which they are.


And your point had zero to do with Jedi’s, which was that China helps. Because they do. No one disputes that Iran builds their own stuff, because they do. Just as no one should dispute that both China and Iran are bad actors that would just allow to run roughshod over certain parts of the world.

Just because you find unappealing or unworkable the alternatives of trying to induce them to voluntarily disarm or giving up on trying to disarm them doesn't mean that the "bomb them from afar" option would work, either. It may very well be that none of those options work. Criticizing the former is not an argument that the current operation will have any material impact on Iran's ballistic missile threat profile within a year or so after the bombs stop falling.


They’re not going to give anything up voluntarily. Causal observers of foreign policy know that the Iranians always negotiate in bad faith, never keep their word, and as a regime exist to export mayhem and chaos. It’s a far better strategy to bring the chai to their doorstep and let them experience it rather than sit around and allow them to export it - at will - at little to no cost to themselves.
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Author: commonone 🐝🐝 BRONZE
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 3:16 PM
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Dope1: Let’s give Iran ten more pallets of cash and lift all sanctions.

My Gawd, the stupid is overwhelming.

In a twist of wartime irony, the United States has moved to ease sanctions on Iranian oil to cool surging energy prices, a potential boon for Tehran as Washington scrambles to contain the economic shockwaves of its military campaign.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday the easing of sanctions, first imposed after Iran's 1979 revolution, would be “narrowly tailored” and only temporary, “permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea.”


The eased sanctions will be worth more than $14 billion for Tehran.

The stupidest f*cking people in history are in charge in America right now.

Or as the great military strategist Scott Bessent said this morning: "We are jiu-jitsuing the Iranians. We are using their own oil against them."

5D chess and $4 gasoline.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-eases-irania...
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Author: AlphaWolf 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 3:33 PM
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The stupidest f*cking people in history are in charge in America right now.

Hey, hey, hey. Ease off, buddy.

Trump removed oil sanctions on Russia, which was a brilliant.

If you’re a Russian dictator who would love to see America’s downfall.
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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 3:33 PM
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And your point had zero to do with Jedi’s, which was that China helps. Because they do.

Not in any material way. Iran's missile production is almost entirely domestic. Intentionally. They are aware that it is possible to interdict arms imports, they maintain capacity to build a missile arsenal entirely with their own resources.

That's not to say China won't help out, in the same way that we are somewhat helped by Italy or Korea or some other country in our military preparedness. But Iran does not need China for its missile programs, and their assistance is not material to the overall strength of those programs. Which is why bombing their missile programs won't keep them from having missiles. They'll just rebuild everything after you stop bombing, and they don't need China to do it.

I get the feeling that some folks think Iran doesn't have any real economy, other than oil extraction. That it's like an agrarian or nomadic country, absent some oil production. That's not true. It's not up to the level of the OECD, of course, but they have a sizable heavy manufacturing and industrial sector. They have more than enough domestic resources to stand up a missile production program, no matter how heavily we bomb their current one.

They’re not going to give anything up voluntarily. Causal observers of foreign policy know that the Iranians always negotiate in bad faith, never keep their word, and as a regime exist to export mayhem and chaos. It’s a far better strategy to bring the chai to their doorstep and let them experience it rather than sit around and allow them to export it - at will - at little to no cost to themselves.

That may be true, but in no way affects whether we can eliminate their ability to have missiles just by bombing them. Whether or not voluntary suasion works doesn't affect whether bombing works. Nor does it mean that bringing "the chai" to their doorstep will work, either. Because it's not "rather than." Bringing the chai to their doorstep doesn't prevent them from continuing to export it. That's not something we "allow them" to do, but something they are able to to irrespective of what actions we take because they control a fairly large country and a fairy large economy with a decent-sized industrial and manufacturing base with large reserves of an important natural resource and geographic advantages with enormous political and economic implications.

Again, just because the status quo is bad doesn't mean that bombing Iran a lot will make it better. Just because alternatives to bombing Iran don't work doesn't mean that bombing Iran will work.
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 3:39 PM
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Not in any material way

Not correct. China helps Iran evade sanctions and provides them with dual-use components that hey can make themselves. Without help from China Iran would have a MUCH harder time.
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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 3:56 PM
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Not correct. China helps Iran evade sanctions and provides them with dual-use components that hey can make themselves. Without help from China Iran would have a MUCH harder time.

For the nuclear program? Perhaps.

But for their drone and ballistic missile programs? Not in any material way. Which is why the idea that we're going to accomplish some kind of "lasting" change in the region by doing this (let alone "50 years") is fanciful.
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 6:58 PM
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For the nuclear program? Perhaps.

But for their drone and ballistic missile programs? Not in any material way. Which is why the idea that we're going to accomplish some kind of "lasting" change in the region by doing this (let alone "50 years") is fanciful.


Incorrect again. China supplies Iran with dual use tech all the time.
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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 7:17 PM
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Incorrect again. China supplies Iran with dual use tech all the time.

Iran doesn't need "dual use tech" from China for making their ballistic missiles - again, any more than we need resources from other allied countries (like the UK or Korea) for our own military preparedness. It's helpful and useful, of course. But Iran has built up their domestic defense industrial base to be able to provide that capacity internally.

And I'm not trying to argue that China isn't a bad actor. I'm pointing out that Iran's missile production capacity can't be stopped by just bombing all their stuff. They'll be able to rebuild it within a year or so, because they have a fairly sizable industrial and heavy manufacturing base. They've got everything they need "in-house," as it were - they're just that reliant on imports the way other countries are.

Plus, in your view of the situation China isn't going to stop supplying Iran with anything they're currently supplying them with - so whatever resources Iran's been getting over the last several years from China will be available to them going forward. So, again, bombing what they have today doesn't bring any lasting change to the security situation. They'll simply rebuild.

We're not doing anything to change their nuclear program - the fissile material is going to stay where it is, almost everything related to the nuclear program that was bombable in June 2025 remains fully bombed. We're not doing anything to change their drone or missile capabilities, since those will be rebuilt in fairly short order (and we're not going to be able to completely eliminate it now). Killing their leadership is highly unlikely to change their behavior, except for the worse. And the regime has proven itself to be resilient - all intelligence reports show that it's very stable even through the deaths, and that if there was any attempt by the civilian population to overthrow the government they'd be massacred (at least in the view of Israeli intelligence). Because of all of this, we're still going to need to keep as close an eye (and as big a military presence) on Iran once these bombs stop dropping as we did before. Perhaps even moreso.
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Author: AdrianC 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 8:10 PM
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“They've got everything they need "in-house," as it were - they're just that reliant on imports the way other countries are.”

Question: Can Iran produce the microprocessors needed for drone control and navigation?

Google Gemini:
Drone Electronics: Iran produces electronic components for its drone programs, including autopilots and microcontrollers, partially to overcome sanctions.

More advanced than I expected.
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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 8:28 PM
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More advanced than I expected.

Iran's not some de-industrialized country. Sure, they're not in the league of the OECD economies, of course - and they're certainly not leading the pack on per-capita output. But they still have a fair amount of industrial and heavy manufacturing output. For example, they're one of the larger auto manufacturing countries in the world. Not in the top 10, but in the top 20, producing about a million cars per year. It's not like they don't have lots of people in their industrial sector who know how to design and manufacture electronic components - or how to build manufacturing facilities to replace the ones that were blown up.




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Author: onepoorguy   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 8:47 PM
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You're absolutely correct. It was stupid to start this war (cost/reward just want there). Bombing isn't going to resolve this, at least not what we're bombing now.

It's probably a long shot, but we should probably destroy all of their oil facilities and terminals. Wipe them out, deprive them of most of their economy. May not work, but it's all I can think of at this point.

I think just going home won't work since they wouldn't be encouraged to cease their asymmetrical attacks.
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 9:02 PM
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Iran doesn't need "dual use tech" from China for making their ballistic missiles

Erm, okay. If you want to pretend that Iran is completely self-sufficient, I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise.

https://www.uscc.gov/research/china-iran-fact-shee...

China was a major supplier of conventional weapons to Iran in the 1980s but largely stopped transfers in 2015 after UN Security Council Resolution 2231 increased international scrutiny of such transfers.[9]In recent years, security cooperation has shifted toward dual-use technology sales and transfers of defense-related technologies, including those relevant to missile and drone development.[10] Chinese components—including sensors, voltage converters, and semiconductors—have been found in Iranian drones, both the drones used by its regional proxies and those exported to Russia for use in Ukraine.[11]
In the days leading up to the U.S. and Israeli strikes in February 2026, several anonymously sourced reports indicated China was engaged in direct arms sales to Iran--offensive drones and a nearly finalized deal to sell anti-ship cruise missiles, though the two sides had not agreed on a delivery date.[12] If confirmed, these reports could indicate a shift toward a less restrained Chinese approach to providing Iran with kinetic military capabilities. Reports indicate that China has allowed sales of a component of rocket fuel to Iran. During the week of March 2, 2026, two state-owned Iranian vessels departed China’s Gaolan Port to Iran and are believed to be transporting sodium perchlorate, a key precursor used in solid rocket fuel for missiles.[13] This follows a similar incident in January 2025, when two different Iranian ships docked in China and were loaded with approximately 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate.[14]
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Author: Lambo 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 9:19 PM
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Incorrect again. China supplies Iran with dual use tech a


Al is actually "materially" correct dope.
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Author: Lambo 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 9:31 PM
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Iran is largely self-sufficient in designing and mass-producing drones, missiles, and related components
, leveraging domestic engineering to build low-cost, effective, and "smart" unmanned systems. While they rely heavily on indigenous production, particularly for engines, they have historically bridged gaps by sourcing dual-use commercial components from international markets.
Key Aspects of Iran's Self-Sufficiency:

Drone Engine Production: Iran has stated it is self-sufficient in manufacturing engines for drones and cruise missiles, with the ability to produce at least 10 types of engines.
Mass Production Capabilities: Iran produces drones like the Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 using low-cost, "off-the-shelf" commercial electronic parts.
Diverse Arsenal: Beyond drones, Iran has developed a robust domestic defense industry focusing on precision-guided missiles and unmanned systems designed to bypass foreign sanctions.
Key Programs: Major,, Shahed, and Kaman-22 are key drones produced domestically.

Challenges and Nuances:

Component Sourcing: Despite claims of total self-reliance, reports indicate that Iran has historically utilized foreign-made parts, such as Rotax engines, in its drone production, suggesting potential dependencies on external dual-use technology.
Quality vs. Quantity: While Iran's systems are effective and capable of disrupting regional security, some experts suggest they may be relying on simpler, cheaper components, which, while cost-effective, might affect long-term reliability compared to Western equivalents.
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Author: ges 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/22/26 10:43 PM
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You're absolutely correct. It was stupid to start this war (cost/reward just want there). Bombing isn't going to resolve this, at least not what we're bombing now.

Interesting report on NPR today. They have someone interviewing refugees from Iran crossing into Iraq. Several have said that as bad as the war is, they approve of the US and Israel attacking the regime. They hate the regime that much. Of course, not all of the people interviewed had that point of view.
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Author: Steve203 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/23/26 2:10 AM
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Interesting report on NPR today. They have someone interviewing refugees from Iran crossing into Iraq. Several have said that as bad as the war is, they approve of the US and Israel attacking the regime. They hate the regime that much. Of course, not all of the people interviewed had that point of view.

I can't recall which media outlet it was, but it claimed Iranians are cheering the bombing. They don't want the bombing to stop, because they would still be stuck with the regime, if the bombing stopped.

Who knows if any of this is true, or more US/Israeli propaganda? Are the people in Gaza begging for more bombing? I have commented before, about the "reports" on CBS News, in refugee camps full of Syrians, supposedly saying "where is America? America has to help us". Eventually, the US engaged in the Syrian civil war, as CBS wanted, taking the same side as AQ, against the Assad regime.

As noted before, the Israeli/US policy is not giving the Iranians an "off ramp" by negotiating. The program is to crush the regime, and tip the country into civil war.

Here's "Bibi's" latest brain fart.

Netanyahu sets out two demands for escalating war in Iran

"We've defined two clear goals," Netanyahu exclusively told Fox & Friends' Trey Yingst on Sunday.

"One is to break completely their nuclear program, break completely their missile program, break completely their capacity to produce the components for both of these programs, and we are all on our way to achieving it," he said.

"We've also set a goal for creating conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow this tyranny that has tormented them and made life miserable. It's making life miserable for the entire world, and I hope we achieve that, too."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/netanyahu-set...

For those who missed it, Trump the Conqueror is also trying to dictate to Cuba it's future government. Not surprisingly, the Cuban government is saying "bite me".

Cuba ‘categorically’ rejects prospect of removing Diaz-Canel in US talks

“The political system of Cuba is not up for negotiation, and of course neither the president ‌nor the position of any official in Cuba is subject to negotiation with the United States,” Fernandez de Cossio said.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/20/cuba-cate...

Emperor Trump is not giving anyone any reason to actually negotiate an "arty deal". It's all diktat from God Trump.

Steve

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Author: EchotaBaaa   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/23/26 6:44 AM
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The trouble now is - we broke it we own it.

Let's for a moment (for those =of us who aren't tribal savages, way worse than Maga who can actually form an opinion without 'Trump!'!!!!...those people are on the committee to re-elect Trump and they did their work, lol)

Iran was one of the few places in the "Religion of Peace" region where John Q Public didn't hate America.

And Golly Gee, what a coincidence we've pretty much left them the hell alone for decades.....imagine that. There was little way to blame America for their Religion of Peace -style-lifestyle and existence.

Now---it's the USA.

So, yes, I actually believe that a small plurality or even a tiny majority is so glad to see the regime get a pounding but there's some problems:

1.)They aren't Americans (from when america existed--I mean the old America, not this shithole). That spirit -- to go take freedom---- may not be there.

2.)They are - understandably terrified. They aren't worried about being fined. They dont want to become a bird like Gay Iranians and get tossed off buildings. (Yes, it happens to gays there.... here's to Woke Kids who love the Religion of Peace...go, enjoy it)

3.)AMERICA has shown to be a few things. 1.)Culturally Stupid. In the end, a cunning person from the Religion of Peace puts on a suit and tie. Wows American Senators with talks of "human rights" "women's rights", sucks off the oil companies and the Israelis---and gets to proceed to beat the shit of the population.

Barring that, America is known for egging on revolutions---and then we leave the people out to dry. Shiite "uprising" against Saddam ring a bell? Have Kurds gotten a country whipping or two this century? When the kid was gonna get run over by Chinese Tanks, did BOTH American parties proceed with huge free trade deals, PNTR, WTO ? Yep.


There's only ONE language the West understands.

If nations we deem 'rogue'--- have operational nuclear weapons, we will kiss the ruler's asses and even throw in some eye contact and oooh's and aaaaaah's.

So at this point I sort of don't blame Iran's populace for not doing more and frankly, like most things we do lately ---we have got no plan or strategy. We're doing it by seat of pants, by tweet, and my cable news updates.

But then again - that is the quality of fogvernance that tribalistic people of primitive civilizations get. And today --in this moment - that's Iranians and Americans. Both tribalistic societies who need to be brought into 1st world governance.

But it's hard solving ancient tribal issues as those things are deeply held to a point where we don't really understand.



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Author: Goofyhoofy 🐝🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/23/26 7:23 AM
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Emperor Trump is not giving anyone any reason to actually negotiate an "arty deal". It's all diktat from God Trump.

Trump has convince3d himself that no matter what he demands, it will be done, probably because it’s worked so well with Republicans - who turn a blind eye to his many and various abuses of the Constitution, laws, and even basic moral rectitude.

It took France, Germany, Italy, Spain, China and the other to finally say “no” when he demanded they provide ships to open the Hormuz Strait which he and Bibi managed to close (“nobody could see that coming”). Now that the USSC has given him total immunity for things he does in office, he thinks that’s a mandate to tell the rest of the world how to operate, as well.

The only message he’s likely to understand is that coming from his acolytes at the gas pumps, and <snide> boy do I feel sorry for them </snide>
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Author: Banksy 🐝🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/23/26 7:41 AM
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"Sure, Donald Trump tanked the economy, shredded the Constitution,
and turned America into an international punchline, but admitting I was wrong is hard." ~Dope1
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Author: ges 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/23/26 8:51 AM
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I should have said the Iranians were crossing into Turkey from Iran.
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Author: jerryab   😊 😞
Number: of 75961 
Subject: Re: Iran's Missiles
Date: 03/23/26 11:10 AM
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But it's hard solving ancient tribal issues as those things are deeply held to a point where we don't really understand.

Perfect explanation of why MAGA is unable to accept American beliefs or values.
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