What fascinates me is that the shift in mood and market direction is stark, and the investing environment and uncertainty have certainly deteriorated a vast amount, but the two are not [yet] in scale with each other: the market isn't actually down very much. Not relative to where it was, and certainly not anywhere near what one might call a normal valuation level, let alone "cheap".

Combined with the fact that the true intrinsic value of most of the world's equities has fallen in a lasting way because it is now a much tougher world in which to make profit, I agree that Mr Buffett is likely to go shopping at some point, but that point may yet be a very long way off.

Based on smoothed real earnings, the S&P 500 would have to drop another 14.6% just to get to its 20 year average valuation level, or drop another 18.5% to get to its 30 year average level. Things ain't cheap. Yet.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.