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https://watchingtheherd.blogspot.com/2023/03/red-b...

A collection of thoughts about the various challenges facing the auto industry driven by

* a century of old, familiar technologies (internal combustion engines) causing global problems
* competing technology solutions to mitigate or eliminate traditional ICE problems
* competing regulatory pressures pushing specific technology solutions
* multi-national corporations attempting to select replacement technologies requiring multi-billion dollar bets
* massive, square wave changes in labor and supply markets brought about by a worldwide pandemic
* enormous uncertainty in customer demand for core drive train technology alternatives
* enormous uncertainty in customer demand for feature technologies (infotainment, safety, self-driving)
* longstanding manufacturer / dealer dysfunction



WTH

I love "Red Barchetta", one of my favorite songs from a band that I was a big fan of back in my teens. Thanks for bringing that to mind. :)

Good writeup of the myriad challenges faced by the auto industry. I think that battery EVs, full electric no ICE, are the future of personal transportation, but I acknowledge there will be room for pure ICE, mild hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles for decades to come, especially in the truck/large SUV market. It will take a long time to ramp up battery production to the level it will take to replace gas and diesel.

It's amazing how advertising for EVs dominates the airwaves this year.

It will take a long time to ramp up battery production to the level it will take to replace gas and diesel.

It also will take a while to speed up battery charging times to the point I can get the battery charged to 400mi range in the same 3-5 minutes I can get my gasoline tank filled to that 400mi range. Or to tweak the engineering (and EV construction/assembly paradigms) so that those charging stations can simply swap out battery packs in the same amount of time some oil change stations are bragging about achieving. I have better things to do with my time than sitting around at a charging station for 30 minutes--or even 15 minutes.

It'll also take quite a while to get our electricity distribution grid upgraded and built out to be able to handle the electricity load of all those chargers charging.

Eric Hines

Lots of good thought starters there.

"Manufacturer/dealer dysfunction"

Certainly, corporations and franchisees have disagreements - be it car dealers or Taco Bell franchisees.

The 'dysfunction' - do you base that on research, or real world experience and if so, from the dealer point of view or OEM?

My opinion is disagreements - but hardly dysfunction.

Thanks

The 'dysfunction' - do you base that on research, or real world experience and if so, from the dealer point of view or OEM?

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The dysfunction I referenced exists both between makers and dealers and between makers+dealers and buyers. Makers and dealers have misaligned incentives around unit volumes. Makers want to report steady or increasing manufacturing numbers which "count" once they push a car to a dealer. Dealers would prefer not accepting new deliveries when sales are slow but pushing back to the maker can mean reduced allocations in the future or allocations of less popular models / trims / colors that will impair the dealer's ability to turn inventory. Makers and dealers together face supply-chain issues with parts and labor that encourage them to minimize unit volumes while maximizing unit price which drives up prices for high-end vehicles and curtails supply of affordable cars. A strategy of lower total volume and maximization of high-end revenue is hurting first time buyers and lower income buyers AND is hurting all of us if a societal goal is to get 20-year ICE vehicles off the roads in exchange for "eco-friendly" hybrids or electric vehicles.

As another meme-derived observation, there are channels on YouTube dedicated to stories captured by auto mechanics from owners dropping off cars for repair. These started years ago and predominately illustrated the comic stupidity of owners unable to identify root cause of obvious, simple problems. In the last few years, though, sprinkled among the comic examples are many more examples where a car is brought in for problem X but the mechanic inspects the vehicle and finds some other catastrophic problem that the client refuses to fix or triggers the shop to refuse ALL repairs to the car because it isn't even safe to put on a lift for the original repair. The lack of affordable cars in the $17,000 to $25,000 range (which is STILL far beyond the means of many) means twenty year old rust buckets with failed suspensions and disintegrating chassis could be headed YOUR way on a two-way road today because few manufacturers are making efforts to make simple, safe, reliable econoboxes. It's like manufacturers have simply decided to price average consumers out of life.


WTH

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