Post #10485 by Mark on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

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Did not signal a sell on Black Monday. Next out on 01/03/88

Yes, 1/3/88 is "after black Monday", and is pretty much equivalent to exiting at/near the low. Just one year later in January of 1989, it was already up by nearly 20% from the low.

If you live in the wrong times, you will get clobbered. There is nothing you can to do avoid this fact.

First of all, this ("living in the wrong times") wasn't my point. My point was that if you SELL at just the wrong time (using a timing method), you will get clobbered. Second of all, there IS SOMETHING you can do to avoid it, what you can do is make sure that your withdrawal rate is safe enough to overcome any previous calamitous period of 30 years (or whatever period you choose to use). That way you will not get clobbered unless the times are worse than the worst previous time ever was.

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