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(xp from the "new" Fool.) There's a great post-game locker room tradition that developed after a win (with a team you may have become sick of hearing about the last 20 years).

*So how do we feel about the best month in the Naz since 2001?! 'Awww Yeaaahhhh!!!'*

I wonder how many are feeling a sense of relief at the first solid up month for stocks in some time, and actually enjoying looking at their portfolios again. With inflation calming down and Mr. Powell doing as the IBs asked and slowing down rate hikes. Given the widely documented psychology of investors about feeling 1/2 as good about gains as losses.

GTAA indicators are below. The summary:

* Every asset class is now bullish / above its 6 to 10m MAs*. The top 4 remain foreign developed (FD) large cap, FD SC, US SC, and Emerging Markets. This is quite a pivot from the conditions at the end of December.

* My individual dashboard of signals including the 99D bromide has flipped to solidly 'all in' as of today's close. A 99D high was triggered on US ex-Naz and 2 FD and EM indexes within the last 2 weeks to 2 days. (indicators snapshot below GTAA).

* 1/12 there was a relatively rare Zweig breadth thrust - first time in @4 years.

* Combined with widely publicized articles about short squeezes such as https://seekingalpha.com/news/3931307-short-squeez...

* What I've done: *this is in no way investment advice.* I am ~equally in top 4, total of @45%, with another 10% between LC momentum (for growth) and RE (for yield); the non-equity portion is mostly 7-10y treasury funds and preferred stocks. 4-7% yields are easy to come by and help fund "nearing retirement".

Class   	IND     Last	Since	     # wks     T6       Sym	Price	MA	  Slope	To MA	Rank
US LC	        IN	OUT	12/19/22	5	X	SPY	416.78	390.59	Up	1.067	6
US LC Mom	CHG	IN	10/28/22	13		MTUM	141.26	142.41	Up	0.99	14
US SC	        IN	IN	01/13/23	3	X	IWM	198.32	180.00	Up	1.10	1
US SC Mom/G	IN	IN	01/13/23	3	X	IJT	120.16	110.92	Up	1.08	4
For. Dev  	IN	IN	11/11/22	11	X	EFA	72.09	63.22	DN	1.140	2
For Dev SC      IN	IN	11/25/22	9	X	SCZ	62.22	55.14	DN	1.128	3
Emerging	IN	IN	01/06/23	4		EMXC	51.23	48.47	Up	1.057	10
Real Estate	IN	IN	01/13/23	3	X	VNQ	93.7	85.13	0	1.101	5
Foreign RE	IN	IN	01/06/23	4		RWX	29.21	26.10	DN	1.119	7
Total Bond	IN	IN	01/13/23	3		BND	74.57	73.43	DN	1.02	12
10Y US Gov	IN	OUT	01/07/22	55		IEF	99.67	98.56	DN	1.01	13
Global HY	IN	IN	01/06/23	4		JNK	94.63	89.77	DN	1.05	8
Preferred	IN	IN	08/31/22	21		PGX	12.77	11.93	Up	1.07	8
Cash/ST						                BIL	91.44	91.51		0.999	10
* - I use slightly shorter than 10M MAs and for RE it's 26weeks.

Indicators Dashboard

WEATHERVANE (US MKT)		10		All In
		                       BEARS/TOP	BULLS	SINCE/Last
Intermediate-Term				
BearCatcher	Nasdaq NH/NL            		Bull	1/13/23
BearCatcher	SMA Slope, S&P 500	 Bear                   4/29/22
BearCatcher	99D/DBE		                        Bull	2/1/22
BC Summary: 2	
Momentum, Int	# 26 week highs			                1/4/22
Momentum, Int	DMI			                        1/13/23
Momentum, Int-Term	10/50 Crossover		         Bull	12/16/22
Momentum, Int	MACD Weekly		                 Bull	1/13
Momentum, Int	26W / 52W		                 Bull	1/13/23
Breadth, midterm	PAMA Naz 50		         Bull	1/6
Breadth, midterm	Naz Bullish %	(n/a)		
Breadth, midterm	S&P PAMA 200		         Bull	1/13/23
Breadth Thrust	                                        Recent  01/12/23			
Correction Mode	>7% off last peak		         Bull	1/14/22
Timing, Seasonal	MACD on RUT		         Bull	10/17/22
Interest Rates	Corporate Bond Index		         Bull	11/25/22
							
Short Term	Top Warning	1		
Momentum, ST	MACD Daily	        	         Bull	1/13/23
Breadth, short term	SP600 PAMA20		         Bull	1/6
Breadth, short term	PAMA5D %OFF 21dh			1/13/23
Top, short term	PAMA Divergence Highs			        12/10/21
Top	PAA Count			                         1/26/22
Top	Recent Simple Top		                	11/19/21
Top	Primary-Tech Divergence			

Its remarkable how much prices, sentiment, and the bear catchers and other indicators have changed since December.

Hard for me to understand the magnitude of this shift based on macro factors, but then again, animal spirits dont read the macro book, or even listen to the Fed Chair.

This weeks action in particular felt like a replay of late 2020 and 2021 - with crazy price action on meme stocks, unprofitable tech etc etc

Its also worth taking a moment to acknowledge Jim's major bottom detector call from late September early October, and Zeelotes more recent indicator performance.

Couple of questions:
FC - Do you track the Coppock signal?
FC - Any suggestions on specific preferred's worth looking in to?
And for bonus points...how long does it last?

Couple of questions:
FC - Do you track the Coppock signal?

Not FC, but I have been tracking the Coppock signal, thanks for the reminder. It is only one data point per month, so it is easy to forget for while.

It turned negative and falling September 30, 2022, which is the setup for a signal once it changes to negative and rising. As of January 31st it was still falling slightly. According to my data, if the S+P500 closes on February 28th at 4222.48 or higher, it will signal a buy.

The Coppock indicator is available on Stockcharts. In its original form it used monthly data, and for that you need a subscription. The Wikipedia article on the signal offers this helpful hack:

Although designed for monthly use, a daily calculation over the same period can be made, converting the periods to 294-day and 231-day rate of changes, and a 210-day weighted moving average.

I have not used the Coppock indicator, which was designed to identified buys only (though there is an implied sell signal built into it). It occurs to me that it might be useful in connection with something I do from time to time: add money to an LTBH cash account in which sells are exceedingly rare.

Baltassar

Hey River,
Hard for me to understand the magnitude of this shift based on macro factors,

Agreed. The Covid crash was the steepest and fastest drop combined in market history. These signals all flipped negative reasonably quickly (inside of 4 weeks IIRC) so that, if followed, you were out of the market without catastrophic damage. Then the shorter term and breadth signals flipped to bullish. With pitchforks out and a loud noise of government intervention in March & April, and a pinch of cynicism about dependence on QE, it was worth taking a flyer on a 25% stock position in April... which then turned into a 75% allocation by June as "the market" clearly voted to buy up the entire big cap tech and internet sectors with all that helicopter money.
THAT was hard to understand.

What these and similar indicators do is give a sense of the big money flow - the actual dollars - going into and out of equities. Regardless of the daily punditry static on "macro".

specific preferred's worth looking in to?

I try to pick them mechanically based on at least one of Moodys or S&P giving them an investment grade, then 4-5% yield above Treasuries. As preferred prices crashed last year along with bonds, it was super easy to find high quality preferreds at prices 20 to 25% below par (making the yield from purchase worthwhile). Didn't touch them until the bond market started to bottom. Then picked up some good bargains - (and realty equity like O) - GLP-A, CSSEN, ATH-C,CADE-A, MS-E, OPINL examples.
Fidelity's screener is decent. But for real details, two free resources I'm aware of -
https://www.quantumonline.com/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M18jyMWV54...

There's always the PGX or PFF (higher fee) ETFs, but that's like owning a bond fund - and at a 5%+ yield the spread isn't close to enough to compensate for the downside risk over Treasuries when you can get 4 1/4 from a govt money fund.

Although designed for monthly use, a daily calculation over the same period can be made, converting the periods to 294-day and 231-day rate of changes, and a 210-day weighted moving average.

Out of curiosity, I set up the daily version of this. It just went positive at the close on Feb. 1. Oddly enough, the same day the other slow "timing signal" (99 day high) went positive. This daily version of the Coppock had indicated a "sell" on Sep. 16 last year, slightly front-running the end of month signal. Subject to my doing things correctly, of course. (Another oddity -- the end of month Coppock signal occurred on the same day mungofitch's long-term signal "called the bottom" - go figure).

This daily version of the Coppock had indicated a "sell" on Sep. 16 last year, slightly front-running the end of month signal.

The Coppock signal is a state change from negative and falling to negative and rising and is a buy signal only. The WMA going below zero is merely "cocking the gun", so to speak, making a signal possible.

The opposite (sell) signal would be a mirrored state change from positive and rising to positive and falling. According to my numbers, this happened, barely, with the monthly signal in September 2021, and again in January 2022.

My guess is that a "Coppeck sell" that occurs significantly above the zero line is not going to work out, since the market can recover and resume its uptrend without passing below the zero line that makes a "Coppeck buy" possible. Some kind of alternative buy signal is going to be required, I think.

To my eye (and using Wikipedia's "daily data" proxy on Stockcharts) this happened in the spring of 2018. That "Coppeck sell" didn't turn into a "Coppeck buy" until last week (again, eye-balling the daily data proxy).

Here's the chart I'm looking at:

https://schrts.co/nmjyTIjY

Baltassar

My guess is that a "Coppeck sell" that occurs significantly above the zero line is not going to work out, since the market can recover and resume its uptrend without passing below the zero line that makes a "Coppeck buy" possible. Some kind of alternative buy signal is going to be required, I think.

You're right. It wasn't designed to be a sell signal anyway.

Even as a buy signal, it only works sporadically, for example it did not trigger at the end of 2018 and not even in March 2020, the Covid crash was too fast.

But - if the curve happens to to be negative when you look, and it starts going up, those seem to be good entry points for long term investments, historically.

FC -

Appreciate your perspective and the links to quantum and the google docs spreadsheet.
I remember seeing the the spreadsheet years ago - IIRC a labor of love of a MF or M* poster

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