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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: Aguila ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 6244 
Subject: Re: Risk-off Signal
Date: 02/15/23 3:09 PM
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Using QQQ at the close for opening long position 1/13 (OL $280.97) and 2/9 (CL $301.68) there was a 7.3% gain.

For the short position using QQQ 12/15(OS $276.23) and 1/6 (CS $268.80) there was a 2.7% gain.


Good point. With QQQ the result is better, although I suspect it could go the other way as well, QQQ being more volatile. I have added QQQ (your dates were slightly off) with these signals which are based on the S+P500 to a little table I made:

date		action		S+P500		price QQQ	return S+P	return QQQ
12/15/22 open short 3,895.75 276.23
1/6/2023 close short 3,895.08 268.80 0.02% 2.76%
1/12/23 open long 3,983.17 279.05
2/10/23 close long 4,090.46 299.7 2.69% 7.40%

Anyway, two trades from a blackbox system, or even 1 year of trades don't prove much. So I think I'll leave it at that, although for entertainment purposes I'm looking forward to seeing the next signals.

Anyone remember TimingCube? I never used them, but remember people posting that their system based on backtested results (which they presented as real trading results) worked for a good while, until it didn't. I think it turned out quite a desaster for some people.
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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